Research · Data study
Can you predict the round a UFC fight ends? 2,262 fights and 481 expert calls checked
We ran our round-by-round model on every three-round UFC fight from January 2022 to October 2026 and graded 481 round calls from the MMA media this year. Saying decision every time was right 48% of the time. The model's best guess got 50%, or 53% with the books' method odds, and it never once rated round 2 above round 1. Naming rounds as often as fights really end that way fell to 44%. The experts' round calls were right 30% of the time, and their round 3 calls 2 times in 68.
Every fight week someone says it with total confidence: “He puts him away in round two.” It sounds like real insight. We checked whether anyone can actually call the round a UFC fight ends in, our own model included. Mostly, nobody can.
Short answer: for a three-round fight, the best single call is almost always “it goes to decision.” Saying that every time was right 48% of the time over 2,262 UFC fights since 2022. Our round-by-round model, at its very best, got to 50%. The MMA writers and pundits who named a round this year were right 30% of the time, and their round 3 calls came true 2 times out of 68.
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This is CageOracle's own research, worked out from our database of every UFC fight, round by round, and years of betting prices. You won't find these numbers on any other MMA site.
Still to come in this study: 10 more sections, 4 charts and 2 tables.
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