Research · Betting study
UFC method props: favorites by decision made +36% over 683 bets since 2022
We ran our who-wins-and-how model on every UFC fight from January 2022 to October 2026, with closing method props at six books. One bet paid every year: the favorite to win by decision, when the model's chance times the best price was above 1. 683 bets, about three a card, +246 units at 1 unit a bet, a 36% return, and +39% in 2025 and 2026 after the rule was chosen on 2022 to 2024. The books underprice favorites going the distance, and the model picks out the ones they underprice most.
Method-of-victory props are some of the worst bets on a UFC card. The books take a big margin on all six of them, and if you had backed every prop of any one kind since 2022, you would have lost money on five kinds out of six. We built a model that predicts who wins and how, ran it on every UFC fight from January 2022 to October 2026, and found one bet that paid every single year.
Short answer: back the favorite to win by decision, but only when our model says the price is too long. That was 683 bets across 206 cards, +246 units at 1 unit a bet, a 36% return, and every year from 2022 to 2026 finished in profit. We chose the rule from 2022 to 2024 alone; in 2025 and 2026 it made 39%.
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This is CageOracle's own research, worked out from our database of every UFC fight, round by round, and years of betting prices. You won't find these numbers on any other MMA site.
Still to come in this study: 7 more sections, 2 charts and 3 tables.
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