About CageOracle

CageOracle is the one-stop shop for UFC fans: every card and every fight on it, the odds from every major sportsbook, the records and stats behind every fighter, our own model's read on each matchup, and the news before and after every event. It's all free, and there's no account to make.

What's here

Events Every UFC card Every announced event with its date, venue, start times in ET, PT and UK time, and where to watch. Once it's over, the results and the closing odds. Fights A page for every fight The odds at each US sportsbook with the best price marked, how the line has moved, the tale of the tape, how each fighter strikes round by round, and the opponents they share. Fighters Every UFC fighter Their record, the closing odds for every fight, how they've done as a bet, career stats ranked against their division, and their record before the UFC. Matchup Any two fighters Put any two fighters head to head, even in a fight that will never happen: who the model favors, how it would likely end, and the tale of the tape. Lab The model, put to work Re-run a rematch, find the closest fight for any fighter, or check whether a fight is likely to go past 2.5 rounds. Leaderboards Ranked lists The biggest upsets, this week's line moves, the fighters who made bettors money, how often favorites win, and every division re-ranked by the model. News News, previews and recaps The stories fans talk about between fights, like big bouts booked, releases and signings. Plus previews ahead of each event, fight-week pieces, the AI crowd's picks, and recaps the morning after. Research Studies of fights and odds What history says about rematches, round 1, reach and age, and how accurate the closing odds really are.

The odds

For every upcoming fight we gather the prices from the US-licensed sportsbooks and put them side by side, with the best price on each fighter marked in gold. Pinnacle, a book that takes big bets and moves its line quickly, is shown next to them as a reference.

Each fight also gets a fair price: the odds with the sportsbooks' cut taken out, which is the market's own estimate of each fighter's chance to win. You can see where the line opened, where it is now, and a chart of how it moved in between. When the fight is over, its closing odds stay on the fight page and on both fighters' pages, so you can always look back at who was favored and by how much.

Our model

Every fight on the next card also gets a number from our own model: each fighter's chance to win. It starts from the fighters' stats, and once the odds are out it weighs in the betting market too.

For each fighter, the model looks at:

Who they've beaten, and who beat them. Every fighter has a rating that rises and falls with each result, and a win over a contender counts for more than a win over a newcomer.
Striking, both ways. How much they land and how much they take, how accurate they are, how often they knock opponents down and how often they get dropped.
Grappling. Takedowns landed and stopped, time spent in control, and submission attempts made and survived.
Age, size and activity. Age, reach and height, how long it's been since their last fight, and how often they've fought lately.
Form. Whether their numbers have been getting better or worse over their last few fights.
Their record before the UFC. This matters most for fighters with only a few UFC fights.
Style. Each fighter has an attacking profile and a defensive one, so the model can see when one fighter's style is a bad fit for the other's, not just who's better on paper.

It learned from thousands of past UFC fights, each rebuilt with only what was known going into it, so it never gets to cheat with hindsight. Two smaller models sit next to it: one for how a fight ends (knockout, submission or decision) and one for how long it lasts. You'll find those on Matchup and in the Lab.

The model's number appears on each fight of the next card in fight week. Cards further out show the odds, and the model's number arrives once that card is next. On Matchup and in the Lab you can ask it about any two fighters at any time. If a fighter is new to the UFC, it may not have a number for them yet.

It's a model, and it's often wrong. Fights turn on things no stat sheet sees: a short-notice replacement, a bad weight cut, one clean punch. Treat its number as one more opinion to weigh, the same way you'd weigh the odds.

Who makes it

CageOracle is an independent site, built by a quantitative researcher with a background in systematic trading. It isn't connected to the UFC or to any sportsbook.

The small print

CageOracle is for information and entertainment. Nothing on it is betting advice, and no number here is a promise about how a fight will go.
Odds change all the time. Check the price at the sportsbook before you bet.
If you bet, the decision is yours. Only bet what you can afford to lose, only with licensed sportsbooks where betting is legal for you, and only if you're 21 or older (or the legal age where you live).
How the model or the odds did in the past is no guarantee of how they'll do next.
CageOracle is not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by the UFC, Zuffa, TKO Group Holdings or any sportsbook.
If gambling stops being fun, help is there: in the US, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Elsewhere, your local problem-gambling service can help.
What the site collects and why is in the privacy policy.

Get in touch

Found a mistake, want something added, or think the model got a fight badly wrong? Email admin@cageoracle.com. We read everything.

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