Predict the
UFC fight outcome.

An advanced machine learning model trained on every UFC fight on record, validated on a strict chronological holdout (2023+) so it's never scored on a fight it could have learned from. Each matchup is reconstructed as-of the fight date — career stats are built from prior fights only, never end-of-career totals, so the model can't peek ahead. Closing-line implied probability is folded in when available; CLV (Closing Line Value) over a fighter's last 5 priced fights captures whether they've quietly been beating the market. Every matchup is evaluated from both corners to remove any left/right bias.

Top contributing features

• Δ age0.011
• Δ SApM0.008
• Δ sd win rate0.004
• Δ sos elo0.004
• Δ eff striking0.003
• Δ bc strength0.003
• Δ weight0.002
• Δ reach0.002