Live picks

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Live odds, model edge, and EV for every fight on the card.
Edge = model% − de‑vigged market%. EV per $100 staked.

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Aug 2025 – Aug 2026

If you had backed every pick in the past year

+$3,987

from flat $100 stakes on all 146 picks — every one chosen by a model that had never seen the fight.

146picksfrom 377 fights on 42 cards
74.7%wonvs 73.7% for the favourite
+27.3%returnon $14,600 staked
$201worst drawdowncard to card
start: $02025-08-16: $2042025-08-22: $2972025-08-23: $3942025-09-06: $8512025-09-13: $7512025-09-27: $8342025-10-04: $8852025-10-18: $1,0612025-10-25: $1,0322025-11-01: $1,0852025-11-08: $1,0462025-11-15: $8842025-11-22: $1,0292025-12-06: $1,0442025-12-13: $1,2012026-01-24: $1,3142026-01-31: $1,5022026-02-07: $1,4652026-02-21: $1,6012026-02-28: $1,6552026-03-07: $1,8092026-03-14: $2,1322026-03-21: $2,0732026-03-28: $2,1482026-04-04: $2,1922026-04-11: $2,0382026-04-18: $2,1392026-04-25: $2,0392026-05-02: $2,2542026-05-09: $2,6712026-05-16: $2,9562026-05-30: $2,9532026-06-06: $3,0302026-06-14: $2,9302026-06-20: $2,9882026-06-27: $3,2412026-07-11: $3,4082026-07-18: $3,4652026-07-25: $3,6562026-08-01: $3,8312026-08-08: $3,9672026-08-15: $3,987$3,987Aug 2025Aug 2026
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Simulated results from historical closing odds — these bets were not placed, and past performance does not predict future results. Betting involves risk of loss.

✅ We train a machine-learning model on every UFC fight since 1993 — fighter&fights data only, no odds, no hype. Then we pull live odds from every major sportsbook. But model alone DO NOT beat the market on all fights. Do not bet on model − market edge alone. Rather, bet moneyline picks, which systematically backtest where the market inefficiencies can be exploited by the addition of the model. Want the model on its own, with no market in it? That’s our static model, check it out on Hypothetical Matchup.
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