CageOracle hasn't taken a public bet yet — this site is pre-launch, so there's no live betting record to point to. What you'll find below instead is a backtest: the exact model currently running this site, scored against real UFC results it never saw during training. Every number here is reproducible from the data in this repo.
Full holdout
716 fights, 2+ years — the long-run validation
The model trains only on fights before 2024-06-01, and is scored on every fight since with market odds available — genuinely never-seen data.
These numbers are effectively tied. That's the honest headline: CageOracle's model matches the accuracy of the closing betting line — which is itself one of the hardest numbers to beat in sports, since it already prices in the market's collective information. We do not claim to reliably beat the market, and we'd rather show a tied number than a cherry-picked winning streak.
What about the value bets?
Over the same 716 fights, 141 were flagged a 5%+ edge (same threshold as the “Value” badge on the Model vs. Vegas page). Hit rate was 77.3% (109/141) — but a high win rate on mostly-favorite picks doesn't automatically mean profit once the bookmaker's vig is priced in: flat $1-unit staking on every flagged edge returned -3.2% over this period. That ROI number is shown deliberately, not just the flattering win rate, because win rate alone is easy to make a model look good with.
Illustration, not proof — small sample
Most recent 2 events
The last two UFC cards, scored exactly the same way: UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 (July 11, 2026) and UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres (June 27, 2026, Baku) — 24 fights total. n=24 is too small to be meaningful on its own; the 716-fight number above is the one that matters. This section is a worked example of the methodology, not a second proof point.
| Matchup | Model Pick (%) | Vegas Pick (%) | Actual Winner | Result | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 · 2026-07-11 | |||||
| Adrian Yanez vs Cody Garbrandt | Adrian Yanez (83.1%) | Adrian Yanez (77.2%) | Adrian Yanez | ✓ Correct | 5.9% Value |
| Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden | Alessandro Costa (71.5%) | Alessandro Costa (66.7%) | Alessandro Costa | ✓ Correct | 4.8% |
| Cesar Almeida vs Damian Pinas | Damian Pinas (67.7%) | Damian Pinas (68.9%) | Damian Pinas | ✓ Correct | 1.2% |
| Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway | Max Holloway (71.5%) | Max Holloway (71.4%) | Max Holloway | ✓ Correct | 0.1% |
| Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista | Cory Sandhagen (60.8%) | Cory Sandhagen (56.9%) | Mario Bautista | ✗ Wrong | 3.9% |
| Elisha Ellison vs Gable Steveson | Gable Steveson (91.1%) | Gable Steveson (89.9%) | Gable Steveson | ✓ Correct | 1.3% |
| Farid Basharat vs John Garza | Farid Basharat (89.5%) | Farid Basharat (84.0%) | Farid Basharat | ✓ Correct | 5.5% Value |
| Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley | Luke Riley (68.1%) | Luke Riley (68.8%) | Luke Riley | ✓ Correct | 0.7% |
| King Green vs Terrance McKinney | King Green (54.7%) | King Green (51.5%) | King Green | ✓ Correct | 3.2% |
| Nikita Krylov vs Robert Whittaker | Nikita Krylov (50.0%) | Robert Whittaker (52.9%) | Robert Whittaker | ✗ Wrong | 2.9% |
| Tracy Cortez vs Wang Cong | Wang Cong (50.2%) | Wang Cong (52.2%) | Wang Cong | ✓ Correct | 2.0% |
| UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres · 2026-06-27 | |||||
| Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Julius Walker | Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (88.5%) | Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (82.7%) | Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | ✓ Correct | 5.9% Value |
| Abus Magomedov vs Michal Oleksiejczuk | Michal Oleksiejczuk (50.8%) | Michal Oleksiejczuk (52.4%) | Abus Magomedov | ✗ Wrong | 1.6% |
| Andrey Pulyaev vs Nursulton Ruziboev | Nursulton Ruziboev (60.1%) | Nursulton Ruziboev (61.3%) | Nursulton Ruziboev | ✓ Correct | 1.2% |
| Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson | Asu Almabayev (79.4%) | Asu Almabayev (73.9%) | Asu Almabayev | ✓ Correct | 5.5% Value |
| Bekzat Almakhan vs Jean Matsumoto | Jean Matsumoto (60.3%) | Jean Matsumoto (61.3%) | Jean Matsumoto | ✓ Correct | 1.0% |
| Brunno Ferreira vs Ikram Aliskerov | Ikram Aliskerov (70.7%) | Ikram Aliskerov (70.7%) | Ikram Aliskerov | ✓ Correct | 0.1% |
| Daniil Donchenko vs Theodor Berggren | Daniil Donchenko (85.0%) | Daniil Donchenko (79.8%) | Daniil Donchenko | ✓ Correct | 5.1% Value |
| Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov | Farman Hasanov (59.0%) | Farman Hasanov (60.4%) | Farman Hasanov | ✓ Correct | 1.5% |
| Javier Reyes vs Kaan Ofli | Javier Reyes (71.0%) | Javier Reyes (66.1%) | Kaan Ofli | ✗ Wrong | 4.9% |
| Jefferson Nascimento vs Tahir Abdullayev | Jefferson Nascimento (62.0%) | Jefferson Nascimento (57.9%) | Tahir Abdullayev | ✗ Wrong | 4.2% |
| Manuel Torres vs Rafael Fiziev | Manuel Torres (52.0%) | Rafael Fiziev (50.0%) | Rafael Fiziev | ✗ Wrong | 2.0% |
| Matheus Camilo vs Nazim Sadykhov | Nazim Sadykhov (61.9%) | Nazim Sadykhov (62.8%) | Matheus Camilo | ✗ Wrong | 0.8% |
| Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov | Shara Magomedov (77.6%) | Shara Magomedov (76.8%) | Shara Magomedov | ✓ Correct | 0.7% |
Every fight here is scored using CageOracle's live model, evaluated strictly on fights after the training cutoff — a true holdout the model never saw during development. “Vegas” is the median closing decimal odds across non-exchange sportsbooks, de-vigged proportionally within each matchup, so the comparison is apples-to-apples rather than raw market price. A “value” fight is one where the model's edge over the de-vigged market price is 5% or more, the same threshold used for the Value badge on the Model vs. Vegas page. ROI reflects flat $1-unit staking at raw decimal odds — vig included, not stripped out for payout.
Historical and backtested performance is not a guarantee of future results — see the Disclaimer for the full picture.