Research · Data study
Betting during UFC fights on Polymarket: 469 fights followed from the bell to the result
During 469 UFC fights on Polymarket this year, $23.5 million was bet while the fight was on, almost a fifth of all the money. The live price was right: fighters who fell behind won about as often as their price said, and one winner in seven was down to 20 cents or less at some point. Before the scorecards, the price had the winner in 91% of decisions. Only money bet in the final minute, as the result came in, came out ahead.
Polymarket doesn’t stop taking bets when a UFC fight starts. The price keeps moving with every exchange, and people keep trading right up to the result. We followed every trade during the 469 UFC fights on Polymarket this year, from UFC 324 in January to the end of October: $23.5 million, from the opening bell until the price settled on the winner.
Short answer: the live price is right. When a fighter was behind during a fight, at 10 cents, 20 cents or 40 cents, he went on to win about as often as his price said. Comebacks happen, and the price allows for them: one winner in seven was down to 20 cents or less at some point. Before the scorecards were read, the price had the winner in 91% of decisions. And the only in-fight money that came out ahead was bet in the final minute, as the fight was ending and before the price caught up.
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This is CageOracle's own research, worked out from our database of every UFC fight, round by round, and years of betting prices. You won't find these numbers on any other MMA site.
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