Research · Data study
UFC expert picks graded: 4,106 picks from writers, fighters and YouTubers
We graded 4,106 picks from 167 experts on 13 UFC cards since August. The experts' majority pick won 67% of fights, the betting favorite 70%. Their underdog picks won 25% of the time, where the odds gave them 39%. Bedtime MMA stood out, more than 5 points above the odds over 161 picks.
Every fight week, hundreds of writers, fighters and YouTubers tell you who wins. We collected every pick we could find and checked each one word for word: 4,106 picks from 167 experts on 167 UFC fights, across the 13 cards from August 1 to UFC 333. Then we graded every one of them against the result and against the betting odds.
Short answer: as a group, the experts lose to the odds. The betting favorite won 70% of these fights; the experts’ majority pick won 67%. And when an expert went with the underdog, it won only one time in four. A handful of names held up, Bedtime MMA most of all.
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This is CageOracle's own research, worked out from our database of every UFC fight, round by round, and years of betting prices. You won't find these numbers on any other MMA site.
Still to come in this study: 9 more sections, 3 charts and 2 tables.
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