Research · Market study
Do sharp UFC bettors stay sharp? 953 fights checked
Across 953 UFC fights since April 2024, we picked Polymarket accounts using only their earlier fights, with strict rules: 19 pass today, where luck alone would let in one or two. On the fights after we picked them, they got a better price than Pinnacle's final line on 64% of their bets, against 37% for everyone else, about 1.4% better on average. It held in every half-year since 2025 and on their $1,000-plus bets.
Every bet on Polymarket, the prediction market, is public, so anyone can follow an account fight by fight. Earlier this month we found a small group of accounts that keep beating the market’s final price on UFC fights. This time we asked the question that matters if you want to follow them: pick them on their past record, and do they keep doing it?
Short answer: yes. Accounts we picked using only their earlier fights got a better price than the final line on nearly 2 of every 3 of their next bets. Everyone else on Polymarket manages about 1 in 3.
Read the full study free
This is CageOracle's own research, worked out from our database of every UFC fight, round by round, and years of betting prices. You won't find these numbers on any other MMA site.
Still to come in this study: 8 more sections and 2 tables.
Free, and it comes with our alerts and Parlay HQ. Already subscribed? Sign in
Loading the full study…