Research · Data study
Half the money on a UFC fight comes in the last hour: 469 Polymarket fights checked
Across 469 UFC fights on Polymarket this year, 51% of the $109 million bet before the opening bell came in the final hour, mostly in bets of $1,000 or more from accounts new to the fight. In the typical fight that hour moved the price 1 point, and the price at the bell picked the winner no more often than the price a day earlier. The first 13% of the money, bet more than a day out, did half of all the moving.
Every bet on Polymarket, the prediction market, is public, down to the second. So we took every bet on the 469 UFC fights it listed this year, from UFC 324 in January to the end of October, $109 million before the opening bells, and lined each one up against the moment its fight started.
Short answer: half the money comes in the final hour. In the typical fight, half of it was still to come 39 minutes before the bell. But that flood hardly moves the price. In the typical fight the price moved 1 point in the last hour, and the price at the bell picked the winner no more often than the price a day earlier. The price is set days before, by a small slice of the money.
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This is CageOracle's own research, worked out from our database of every UFC fight, round by round, and years of betting prices. You won't find these numbers on any other MMA site.
Still to come in this study: 9 more sections, 2 charts and 2 tables.
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