Research · Data study
Polymarket UFC makers vs takers: who made money on 470 fights
Every trade on Polymarket has a maker, who posted the order, and a taker, who accepted it. Across 470 UFC fights this year, makers beat takers by $2.1 million, 1.2% of their money, and came out ahead on 23 of 38 cards. Almost all of it came from upsets: valued at the price when each fight started, makers were only $169,000 ahead. Their edge on a fill fades from 0.7% a minute later to 0.16% by the start, they lose money at the end of fights, and only 23 accounts really quote both sides.
Every trade on Polymarket has two sides. The maker posted an order and waited. The taker came along and accepted it. Takers bet at the price on the screen; makers are the ones who put that price there. We took every fill on 470 UFC fights this year, both sides of it, and worked out how the makers did, card by card and account by account.
Short answer: makers beat takers by $2.1 million, 1.2% of the $168 million they put up, and came out ahead on 23 of 38 cards. But almost all of it came from how a few big fights ended. Valued at the price when each fight started, makers were only $169,000 ahead. A maker’s fill is worth about 0.7% more than he paid a minute later, and most of that is gone by fight time. And most big makers aren’t market makers at all: the 23 accounts that really quote both sides made $239,000 between them.
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This is CageOracle's own research, worked out from our database of every UFC fight, round by round, and years of betting prices. You won't find these numbers on any other MMA site.
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