Malott's knee flattens Buckley at UFC Edmonton as Jasudavicius upsets Blanchfield

Mike Malott closed a modest favourite at -141 (56%). His knee caught Joaquin Buckley on the jaw at 2:32 of round two in Edmonton. Sherdog called it "an instant knockout-of-the-year contender".

Favourites won only 7 of the 13 fights, and 12 of the 13 ended inside the distance.

Malott's knee

According to Uncrowned, Buckley snubbed Dana White's handshake at Friday's ceremonial weigh-ins. Sherdog reports he then refused to touch gloves.

The first round was slow. Malott threw body kicks, Buckley lunged in with right hooks, and a late Buckley hook knocked Malott off balance. Sherdog's three scorers split on it, two of them giving it to Buckley.

In the second, Buckley walked forward behind punches and tied up. Malott turned him into the fence and drove knees into his body. Then, as Buckley threw a left hand, a Malott knee met him flush on the jaw. Yahoo saw it as a head kick that landed with the knee; everyone agrees the knee did it.

Buckley's mouthpiece flew out and he fell forward onto all fours. Referee Marc Goddard stopped it after one more punch. Malott is now 8-1 in the UFC with five straight wins, and Buckley has lost three in a row.

Malott would not call anyone out. He did set a floor, as printed by Uncrowned:

"Somebody in the top 10 [next] at the very least, maybe top five next, baby, let's go"

CBS expects him to take Buckley's No. 10 spot.

We think the slide was visible: in May against Sean Brady, Buckley landed 5 of 31 significant strikes and absorbed 77. His career striking accuracy, 36%, sits in the 3rd percentile.

Jasudavicius out-grappled Blanchfield

The co-main was the night's biggest upset by name. Erin Blanchfield closed at -333 (74%), Jasmine Jasudavicius at +265 (26%). Our model was harsher still, giving her 19%.

She won 29-28 on all three cards. Every judge gave her rounds one and two and Blanchfield the third. All eight media scorecards logged on MMADecisions agreed.

In the first round, Cageside Press has her landing a takedown, a slam and then the back. She worked for chokes for nearly three minutes, per Yahoo. In the second she stuffed a Blanchfield shot, chained a single leg into a body lock, took the back again and hunted an arm-triangle.

Blanchfield's third was her best round. She found one-twos and longer combinations, and a hematoma rose on Jasudavicius's forehead. Even so, with under 90 seconds left, she dragged Blanchfield down from a rear waistlock and held her there.

The grappling numbers were closer than the price. Jasudavicius spends 49% of her fight time in control (95th percentile), Blanchfield 38%. Our model still had her at 19%, so we missed it too.

At 37, Jasudavicius is 10-3 in the UFC and 7-1 over her last eight. She told Paul Felder in the octagon who she wants, per Yahoo:

"I want to cross paths with Natalia Silva again. We have a history."

The other upsets

Chelsea Chandler (+295, 24%) produced the biggest price. Melissa Croden won most of the round, per Sherdog, landing in the clinch and getting on top. Then Croden tripped her late, Chandler rolled on top, and a kimura ended it at 4:52.

Marc-Andre Barriault (+165, 36%) was losing to Kyle Daukaus, who had his back in a body triangle. With about two minutes left Barriault broke free, kneed him as he shot, and finished with elbows at 4:28. Daukaus's record carried a warning: three of his last five UFC fights ended in a KO/TKO loss, including against Bo Nickal in June.

Tanner Boser (+180, 34%) won with wrestling. In our numbers he had never landed a UFC takedown. Against Jhonata Diniz he kept hitting single legs, worked from crucifix and mount, and got the stoppage at 4:26 of round three.

Timmy Cuamba (+138, 40%) submitted debutant Louis Jourdain in round two. SuYoung You (+104, 47%) beat unbeaten Canadian debutant Cody Chovancek with a third-round kimura, to boos from the crowd.

Where the money went

We have opening lines for every fight, but we've left the main event's out. Our recorded open doesn't match published openers, so we don't trust it.

The two biggest moves pointed at winners. Steven Koslow opened as the underdog against Chad Anheliger, at 46%, and closed at 62% before choking him out in round three. You went from 36% at the open to 47% at the close.

Three favourites who shortened sharply all lost. Blanchfield went from -230 (67%) to -333. Croden went from -250 (69%) to -370, and Jourdain from -135 (53%) to -164 (60%).

Our model's night

The model picked 7 of 13 winners, counting fights where its number was 50% or higher. That is exactly the market's record, because the two never disagreed about a winner. Our model blends in the betting market once odds exist, so close agreement is expected.

In 8 of the 13 fights it sat a little closer to the winner than the closing line did. But its three biggest disagreements with the market all went the wrong way: Blanchfield (81% to 74%), Croden (82% to 76%) and Daukaus (70% to 64%). Those three outweighed the rest.

Scored across the whole card, the model's numbers were less accurate than the closing line (a Brier score of 0.280 against 0.262, where lower is better). We count this as a poor night for the model.

Bonuses

Performance of the Night went to Malott, Barriault, Mandel Nallo and Joel Faglier, at $100,000 each. No Fight of the Night was reported. Nallo dropped Nate Landwehr with a low kick and finished him with punches early in round two. Faglier got up from two first-round knockdowns to stop Javad Mahjoub in the second.

According to Yahoo, every other fighter who won by finish also took home $25,000. The same piece cites SB Nation saying the card, as booked, had 12 Canadian fighters, the most in UFC history.

Rest of the card

• Cristian Perez def. Kyle Nelson, KO/TKO, round 1 (0:27)
• Mandel Nallo def. Nate Landwehr, KO/TKO, round 2 (0:47)
• Nick Galanti def. Julien Leblanc, submission, round 1 (1:26)
• Joel Faglier def. Javad Mahjoub, KO/TKO, round 2 (2:11)
• Katlyn Cerminara def. Mackenzie Stiller, KO/TKO, round 1 (4:46)
• Steven Koslow def. Chad Anheliger, submission (rear naked choke), round 3 (4:31)