UFC Edmonton: Malott a slight favourite over Buckley, our model higher on Blanchfield

The betting has settled on a close main event in Edmonton. Mike Malott is -129 (54%) and Joaquin Buckley is +106 (46%). We don't have a reliable opening price for this fight, so there's no line move to report. We also found no fight-week reports of injuries, weight trouble or camp changes for either man.

Buckley vs Malott

Buckley has lost two straight, and both losses followed the same script. Kamaru Usman held him down for 12:57 in June 2025, according to theScore. Sean Brady did it for 12:09 in May, per UFCalendar. Buckley closed as the favourite both times, at -204 and -171.

Malott wins on the feet, not on the mat. The UFC's own preview says he isn't as strong a wrestler as Usman or Brady. He walks people down behind body kicks and the left hook. Gilbert Burns went 0 for 7 on takedowns against him in April before Malott dropped him twice and stopped him in the third.

On the feet, Buckley lands 36% of his significant strikes, in the 3rd percentile in our data, while Malott lands 52%. But Buckley's power is real. He knocked out Stephen Thompson in the third round in October 2024, and a cut he opened ended the Covington fight in the third.

Five rounds is new ground for Malott, since even the Burns main event ended in the third. Buckley's best round against Usman was the fifth, when he stopped all six takedown attempts. Burns and Kevin Holland both kept the first round competitive before Malott took over.

Our lean is Malott, narrowly, and our model agrees at 53%. He has finished strong lately, getting the better of Burns and Holland after round one, though never yet over five rounds. He can also mix in a takedown, like the slam on Holland, against a man who has struggled badly off his back.

Where our model and the market differ

Once odds are posted, our model's numbers are blended with the betting market, so they rarely stray far. On the main event the two barely differ. The biggest gap on the card is the co-main, where the model has Erin Blanchfield at 81% against the market's 72%.

Further down, it's higher on Kyle Daukaus at 72% than the market's 65%. His opponent, Marc-Andre Barriault, absorbs 6.07 significant strikes a minute, near the bottom of our data, and has lost four of his last five.

Blanchfield vs Jasudavicius

Blanchfield and Jasmine Jasudavicius were meant to fight at UFC 330 in August, until Blanchfield withdrew with an undisclosed injury, according to Cageside Press. She hasn't fought since submitting Tracy Cortez last November. Both women won in this arena on the same night in November 2024. Blanchfield beat Rose Namajunas, and Jasudavicius submitted Ariane da Silva.

Blanchfield is -308 (72%) and Jasudavicius is +245 (28%). Blanchfield walks forward behind the jab and takes shots to get to a bodylock on the fence. Against Cortez she reversed a double-leg, ran a clinch into a takedown and finished her with a rear-naked choke late in the second round. She lost the opening round to Fiorot, Namajunas and Cortez, and came back to beat the last two.

Jasudavicius is the bigger woman, 5'7" with a 68-inch reach to 5'4" and 66 inches. She spends 49% of her fight time in control, 95th percentile in our data, and held Karine Silva down for 8:09 in April. Her striking is the issue: Manon Fiorot kept her on the end of a jab and stopped her in 74 seconds. Jasudavicius landed 2 of 14.

Two numbers back the model's view: Blanchfield lands 5.24 significant strikes a minute, and Jasudavicius avoids only 52%. If Jasudavicius can't get her takedowns going, she's in the kind of fight she lost badly to Fiorot.

Our lean is Blanchfield, most likely through the clinch and scrambles over three rounds. The caution is the layoff and an injury nobody has described.

Chovancek vs You

The opening fight of the night has had the biggest move on the card. Cody Chovancek opened at -195 (64%) and is now -152 (57%), with SuYoung You at +120 (43%). We found no injury or camp news for either man that explains it. Our model, at 56% for Chovancek, sits with the current price.

Chovancek is 9-0 and makes his UFC debut in Canada, 13 months after his Contender Series win. He's a puncher: an overhand right wobbled Raphael Uchegbu and ended that fight 10 seconds into the third round, per Cageside's play-by-play. The warning sign came in round two. A wild overhand and a spinning backfist pulled him out of position, and Uchegbu took his back.

He also missed weight for a bantamweight title fight in May 2025, according to the promoter. The UFC says he prepared for this one alongside Malott and Jasudavicius.

You won Road to UFC in 2024 and chains takedowns. He lands 3.23 per 15 minutes (90th percentile), and his 70% striking defence is the best in our data. Beyond the wrestling and defence, there's little: 2.37 significant strikes landed a minute, and his last three wins all went to decision.

In March, Elijah Smith kneed him on his first shot, then met a second-round rush with an uppercut and hook. He dropped You and finished him with a rear-naked choke at 1:04 of the second.

Our lean is Chovancek, narrowly, because he has the kind of power Smith used to punish those level changes. The drift towards You still makes sense to us. We've seen nothing of how Chovancek handles a wrestler this persistent, or how sharp he is after the long layoff.

When it starts and where to watch

• Prelims: 5:00 PM ET, 2:00 PM PT, 10:00 PM UK, on Paramount+
• Main card: 8:00 PM ET, 5:00 PM PT, 1:00 AM UK (early Sunday), on Paramount+