UFC Edmonton preview: Malott's precision against Buckley's late-round danger

Mike Malott is back at Rogers Place on Oct. 17, the same arena where he beat Trevin Giles in November 2024. This time he headlines, over five rounds, against Joaquin Buckley. Erin Blanchfield and Jasmine Jasudavicius fight in the co-main, but the main event asks whether Malott can win standing for 25 minutes.

Malott (14-2-1) has won four straight since his only UFC loss, to Neil Magny in January 2024. Buckley (21-8) comes in off two decision losses, to Kamaru Usman and Sean Brady, after stopping Stephen Thompson and Colby Covington in late 2024. Betting lines weren't posted when we wrote this, so the market's view of how close it is will have to wait.

How Buckley wins

Buckley's best punch is a leaping right hand thrown at the end of a blitz. It finished Thompson in round 3 at UFC 307, after Thompson outlanded him 15-6 in the first round with head kicks and counters. It caught Covington mid-head-kick at the end of round 1 in Tampa, a fight the doctor stopped on a cut in round 3. Against Nursulton Ruziboev, a right-left and a third punch dropped him in round 3, and Buckley mounted him and threw elbows.

He's wilder than those finishes suggest. His career striking accuracy is 36%, which is 3rd percentile in our data. In round 2 against Thompson he got loose with leaping strikes, per Cageside Press, and the judges were split after two rounds.

He also wrestles strikers. He went 4 for 7 on takedowns against Thompson and 4 for 4 against Ruziboev. Buckley said he switched to wrestling against Thompson, backed him onto the cage and turned that into the knockout, according to Low Kick MMA. He works the body too, with hooks and a knee against Covington and body shots against Usman.

How Malott wins

Malott is a pressure kickboxer who cuts off the cage and lands clean. His striking accuracy is 52% (73rd percentile), and he absorbs 2.83 significant strikes a minute to Buckley's 3.10. He mixes rear body kicks and calf kicks with left hooks and straight punches. Buckley is three inches shorter but has the longer reach, 76 inches to 73.

His left hook is his best single punch. A counter left hook dropped Charles Radtke early in round 2 at UFC 315, and his ground and pound ended it at 0:26. Against Gilbert Burns in April, Malott had the better of the first two rounds on pressure and timing. In round 3 a combination sat Burns down and a clean right hand dropped him again, and Herb Dean stepped in.

We think the rear body kick matters here. Against a southpaw, an orthodox fighter's rear kick lands on the open side. Malott threw it early and often against Giles, per Cageside Press. His calf kicks, which hurt Magny's lead leg, came against an orthodox opponent and should be harder to land on a southpaw.

Should Malott wrestle?

Usman and Brady beat Buckley the same way. Usman took him down once in each of rounds 1 to 4 and held about 13 minutes of control. Brady took him down in all three rounds, mounted him three times and held 12:09 of control. Buckley landed five significant strikes in that fight.

Malott has the tools to try it. He's a BJJ black belt, his takedown accuracy is 57% (91st percentile), and he went 4 for 6 against Magny. Against Kevin Holland last October he hit a slam late in round 3. He had an arm triangle getting very tight before Holland got back up.

But the Magny fight is also the warning. After spending much of it on top, Malott was completely gassed late in round 3, CBS Sports reported. Magny reversed him and stopped him with 15 seconds left.

In four fights since, he has landed one takedown from five attempts. Covington got one takedown from eight tries on Buckley and couldn't keep him there.

Our read is that Malott shouldn't build a five-round plan on wrestling. A takedown late in a close round to steal it makes sense. Riding Buckley for long stretches is what wore him out against Magny.

Chins and the championship rounds

Buckley hasn't been finished in his last five fights, and both losses went the distance. None of the fight reports we read has him knocked down in that run. Ruziboev wobbled him with punches in round 1, the only time he was badly hurt.

Malott has been dropped recently. Holland's right hand sat him down in round 1 last October, though he recovered to win the next two rounds. Right hands have found him in each of his last three fights, from Radtke, Holland and Burns.

Buckley has done 25 minutes against Usman and won round 5 clearly, outlanding him 20-10 and stopping every takedown. His best rounds against Thompson and Ruziboev came in the third. Malott has never fought past round 3, and this is only his second UFC main event.

How we see it going

Rounds 1 and 2 look like Malott's. Thompson outlanded Buckley 15-6 in round 1 at UFC 307, and Malott is the more accurate striker of the two. His straight punches and body kicks should land on a man who lunges in from range.

Round 3 is where Buckley has done his finishing, and where Malott stopped Burns. If Malott has hurt him by then, his ground and pound has ended fights before. If Buckley is still upright and walking forward, that's when his right hand has landed.

Our lean is Malott, more likely through the first three rounds than late. He's the cleaner, more accurate striker, and his takedown defence held against a black-belt grappler in Burns.

What would flip it is a close fight going into round 4. Buckley has won a fifth round against Usman. Malott has never seen a fourth. Our model, which works from fight stats only and never sees the odds, publishes its number in fight week on the fight page.

Buckley's takedowns

The less obvious path is Buckley wrestling Malott. He has done it to strikers before, and the last time Malott spent a fight grappling hard, he had nothing left in round 3.

Even a few early level changes on the cage would make Malott carry Buckley's weight and defend. That would cost him most in rounds 4 and 5, which he has never fought.

Watch whether Buckley shoots in the first two rounds. He didn't attempt a single takedown against Usman or Brady. Against Thompson, he scored two in each of the first two rounds, then knocked him out in the third.