UFC Vegas 122 recap: Allen submits Duncan in the fifth on a night of five upsets

Brendan Allen opened at 66% and closed at 51%, nearly a coin flip, after the line moved hard toward Christian Leroy Duncan. For four rounds at the Meta Apex, that move looked justified. Then Allen dragged Duncan down early in the fifth and finished him with a rear-naked choke at 2:46.

Favourites won 6 of the 11 fights that produced a winner. From open to close, the line moved toward the loser in six of ten fights, and our model finished level with the closing line.

Allen finds the choke in the fifth

Duncan took the first round on all three of Sherdog's play-by-play cards. According to Uncrowned, he stuffed Allen's early takedowns and landed heavy shots. The second round opened with an eye poke on Allen, moments after he had warned the referee about Duncan's outstretched fingers. Marc Goddard took a point, Cageside Press reported.

Allen then took Duncan down and dropped elbows from side control. With Duncan's deducted point, Sherdog's scorers all had the round 10-8 Allen. In the third, Duncan scrambled out of an Allen takedown and finished on top.

Uncrowned had Duncan outlanding Allen 46 to 17 in significant strikes in the fourth. Allen complained of rib pain to his corner afterwards. Cageside saw a closer round.

Adding up Sherdog's round scores, two of the three had Duncan ahead 38-37 going into the fifth. Without the point deduction, those two cards would have read 39-37. The official cards after four rounds weren't published anywhere we looked.

Duncan's corner told him he needed to win the fifth, per Cageside. Ninety seconds in, Allen locked a bodylock, dragged him down, got both hooks in and sank the choke.

Allen came in with 1.01 submission attempts per 15 minutes, in the 85th percentile, and Duncan had never tried one in the UFC. The finish came from Allen's best skill.

Allen is now 28-7 with four straight wins, including Reinier de Ridder as a 35% underdog. He said what he wants next in the cage, per Uncrowned:

"Fight the champion, and if not, where's [Dricus du Plessis]? He's been running for a little while."

Duncan drops to 15-3. His five-fight win streak ended in his first UFC headliner.

The line mostly moved the wrong way

Of the ten decided fights with a usable opening line, the price moved toward the winner in three and the loser in six. Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert stayed at 63%.

The main event was the biggest move, 15 points toward Duncan. Andre Fili slid from 62% to 54%, then knocked out Kai Kamaka III with a head kick 22 seconds into the second round. Felipe Franco firmed from 70% to 77% and lost inside two minutes. Niko Price drifted from 50% to 45% and won in the first round.

The three moves that pointed at winners were Francisco Prado (52% to 60%), Loopy Godinez (64% to 68%) and Otari Tanzilovi (32% to 36%). Both Prado's and Godinez's opponents missed weight, Ismael Bonfim by 7.5 lb and Ketlen Souza by 1 lb, per Cageside. Our data doesn't show when either line moved. Ernesta Kareckaite went from a 59% favourite to a 47% underdog, and her fight with Melissa Gatto ended in a draw.

Five upsets, and what hinted at them

Brendson Ribeiro closed at 23%, on a four-fight losing streak, and missed weight at 208.5 lb. Nothing pointed his way. Franco shot for a takedown, walked into a guillotine, and Ribeiro finished it at 1:49.

Allen Frye Jr. closed at 24%, and the line moved away from him too. RJ Harris stunned him with a jab about 30 seconds in, Cageside reported. Frye answered with four right hands to the jaw and finished him at 2:59 of the first. Tanzilovi closed at 36% and was dropped by a body shot in the first round. In the second he put Malcolm Wellmaker out with a head kick at 2:39. Our model had Tanzilovi at 52%, against the market's 36%. Wellmaker had also lost his last two as a big favourite, at 69% against Juan Diaz and 78% against Ethyn Ewing.

Herbert, 38, beat Camilo in the co-main at 37%. Camilo won the first round with an overhand right and a takedown. Herbert reversed a takedown in the second and shut down the takedowns in the third. All three judges had it 29-28, and all ten media scorers on MMADecisions agreed.

Our read: Camilo lands 2.22 significant strikes a minute, in the 6th percentile, so his game is the takedown. Once Herbert started stopping them late, there was little else.

Our model: 6 of 11

Our model had 6 of the 11 winners at 50% or better, the same as the closing line. It disagreed with the market twice and split them: Duncan at 52% lost, Tanzilovi at 52% won.

The model was more sure than the market about Franco (84%), Harris (81%) and Camilo (71%), and all three lost. It was also surer than the market on four winners, Godinez, Walker, Prado and Pereira, so one card proves little.

Two scorecards worth a second look

Loopy Godinez was bloodied from the first round and only clearly won the third. All three judges still gave her a 29-28 win over Ketlen Souza, but 8 of 9 media scorers on MMADecisions had Souza.

Ernesta Kareckaite lost a point for grabbing the fence in the first round, and her fight with Melissa Gatto ended in a majority draw. That deduction is what made it a draw on two judges' cards.

Two goodbyes

Gerald Meerschaert retired in the cage after 60 pro fights, stripping off his gloves. Julius Walker tripped him down, dropped elbows from half guard and finished him with punches at 3:35 of the second. "I've had a good run," Meerschaert said, per Cageside. "Can't fight forever."

Price's fight was billed as his send-off. His March fight with Michael Chiesa had been Chiesa's retirement, and Price didn't even get a post-fight interview, Cageside wrote. He finished Leon Shahbazyan with elbows and punches at 1:58 of the first. He told Michael Bisping, "You might see me again, you never know."

Bonuses

Performance of the Night, $100,000 each, went to Allen, Fili, Tanzilovi and Alice Pereira, per Sherdog. There was no Fight of the Night. According to Cageside, Price, Walker, Prado, Ribeiro and Frye each got a $25,000 finish bonus. The card had nine finishes.

Full results

• Brendan Allen def. Christian Leroy Duncan, submission (rear-naked choke), round 5 (2:46)
• Jai Herbert def. Matheus Camilo, unanimous decision
• Loopy Godinez def. Ketlen Souza, unanimous decision
• Andre Fili def. Kai Kamaka III, KO/TKO, round 2 (0:22)
• Otari Tanzilovi def. Malcolm Wellmaker, KO/TKO, round 2 (2:39)
• Julius Walker def. Gerald Meerschaert, KO/TKO, round 2 (3:35)
• Francisco Prado def. Ismael Bonfim, KO/TKO, round 1 (4:23)
• Niko Price def. Leon Shahbazyan, KO/TKO, round 1 (1:58)
• Brendson Ribeiro def. Felipe Franco, submission (guillotine choke), round 1 (1:49)
• Allen Frye Jr. def. RJ Harris, KO/TKO, round 1 (2:59)
• Alice Pereira def. Daria Zhelezniakova, KO/TKO, round 1 (5:00)
• Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto, majority draw