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Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert

Odds, prediction and stats · Lightweight · 3 rounds · Main Card

Sat, Oct 10, 2026Main Card starts 8:00 PM ET · 5:00 PM PT · 1:00 AM UKLive odds · updated 1 hour ago
Red corner · Favourite
Matheus
Camilo
“Jaguar”
Lightweight · Fights out of Rio Branco, Brazil
Record
11-3
UFC
2-1
Age
25
Height
5'10"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Fight history and price record →
CamiloHerbert
Betting market
63%37%
CageOracle model
72%28%
The model is 8 points higher on Matheus Camilo than the market.
AI crowd
63%37%
How the AIs saw it →
Camilo · best price−189at BetRivers
Herbert · best price+170at Caesars
Opened −185 / +161, now −192 / +162. The line has barely moved from the open.
Blue corner · Underdog
Jai
Herbert
“Black Country Banger”
Lightweight · Fights out of Wolverhampton, United Kingdom
Record
14-6
UFC
4-5
Age
38
Height
6'1"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Fight history and price record →

Fight details

Event
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Co-main event
Date
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
Main Card starts
8:00 PM ET · 5:00 PM PT · 1:00 AM UK
Venue
Meta Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
Broadcast
Paramount+ (as ufc.com lists it)
Weight class
Lightweight
Rounds
3 × 5 minutes
Weigh-in
Matheus Camilo 156 lb, Jai Herbert 155 lb

Preview

Matheus Camilo (11-3) faces Jai Herbert (14-6) in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, a lightweight bout, on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at Meta Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada. Matheus Camilo has won 2 of 3 UFC fights, 1 by knockout, and comes in on 2 wins in a row. Jai Herbert has won 4 of 9 UFC fights, 2 by knockout.

Matheus Camilo is 13 years younger; Jai Herbert has a 8-inch reach advantage. Matheus Camilo avoids 67% of opponents' significant strikes, better than 98% of active UFC fighters.

The betting market makes Matheus Camilo a 63% favourite (−192). The line has barely moved from the open.

Read more on this fight

All articles →
AI crowd · Oct 8, 2026 AI crowd leans Allen, defies the odds on Tanzilovi at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan 100 AI forecasters lean Brendan Allen at 55% in the main event, where our model prefers Christian Leroy Duncan. They also side with Otari Tanzilovi, against the betting market. Fight week · Oct 5, 2026 Allen vs. Duncan: the line has drifted toward Duncan, and our model goes further Brendan Allen has gone from -210 to -137 since the open. Here is what our model makes of the fight, plus Camilo vs. Herbert and the card's biggest model-versus-market gap. Preview · Oct 5, 2026 Allen vs Duncan preview: can Brendan Allen get the kicker to the mat? Christian Leroy Duncan has won five straight with kicks, knees and spinning strikes. Brendan Allen has the top game to test him, if his takedowns land.

More from this card

Full card →
Brendan Allen 27-7 vs Christian Leroy Duncan 15-2 Line moving to Duncan, 13 points since the open −122▲+102 −210+180 −115 BetMGM+104 FanDuel 53%47% 50%50% Loopy Godinez 14-6 vs Ketlen Souza 17-6 Line moving to Godinez, 4 points since the open ▲−238+195 −190+165 −233 Caesars+198 FanDuel 68%32% 73%27% Andre Fili 25-14 (1 NC) vs Kai Kamaka III 18-8-1 Line moving to III, 4 points since the open −152▲+128 −175+153 −145 BetMGM+132 BetRivers 58%42% 60%40% Malcolm Wellmaker 10-2 vs Otari Tanzilovi 10-2 −208+176 −240+200 −200 BetMGM+185 Caesars 65%35% 51%49% Julius Walker 7-3 vs Gerald Meerschaert 37-22 Line moving to Meerschaert, 5 points since the open −303▲+245 −400+316 −303 BetMGM+250 Caesars 72%28% 80%20% Francisco Prado 12-5 vs Ismael Bonfim 20-7 Line moving to Prado, 5 points since the open ▲−147+120 −119−101 −143 FanDuel+125 Caesars 57%43% 60%40% Leon Shahbazyan 12-5 vs Niko Price 16-11 (2 NC) Line moving to Shahbazyan, 7 points since the open ▲−145+122 −110−110 −143 DraftKings+125 Caesars 57%43% 59%41% Felipe Franco 11-2 vs Brendson Ribeiro 17-11 (1 NC) Line moving to Franco, 6 points since the open ▲−400+310 −270+222 −370 BetRivers+320 Caesars 77%23% 83%17% RJ Harris 6-0 vs Allen Frye Jr. 6-1 Line moving to Harris, 3 points since the open ▲−364+288 −300+245 −345 BetRivers+300 Caesars 75%25% 81%19% Alice Pereira 7-1 vs Daria Zhelezniakova 10-3 —— —— —— —— 67%33% Melissa Gatto 9-3-2 vs Ernesta Kareckaite 6-2-1 Line moving to Gatto, 11 points since the open ▲−120−102 +135−155 −115 BetMGM+102 DraftKings 52%48% 54%46%

Questions and answers

When is Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert?

Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert is on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan. The main card starts at 8:00 PM ET (5:00 PM PT, 1:00 AM UK).

Where is Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert?

Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert takes place at Meta Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada.

How can I watch Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert?

ufc.com lists the main card on Paramount+.

Who is favoured to win, Matheus Camilo or Jai Herbert?

Matheus Camilo is the betting favourite. With the bookmakers' margin removed, the market gives Matheus Camilo a 63% chance and Jai Herbert 37%. Best prices at US books: Matheus Camilo, −189 at BetRivers; Jai Herbert, +170 at Caesars.

What does the CageOracle model predict for Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert?

The model gives Matheus Camilo a 72% chance.

How many rounds is Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert?

3 rounds of five minutes.

What are Matheus Camilo and Jai Herbert's records?

Matheus Camilo is 11-3 (2-1 in the UFC). Jai Herbert is 14-6 (4-5 in the UFC).

How old are Matheus Camilo and Jai Herbert?

Matheus Camilo is 25 and Jai Herbert is 38.

How tall are Matheus Camilo and Jai Herbert, and what is their reach?

Matheus Camilo is 5'10" and has a 69" reach; Jai Herbert is 6'1" and has a 77" reach.

Where are Matheus Camilo and Jai Herbert from?

Matheus Camilo fights out of Rio Branco, Brazil; Jai Herbert fights out of Wolverhampton, United Kingdom.

Have Matheus Camilo and Jai Herbert fought before?

No. This is their first fight against each other in the UFC.