Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto
Odds, prediction and stats · Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds · Prelims
Fight details
- Date
- Sat, Oct 10, 2026
- Prelims starts
- 5:00 PM ET · 2:00 PM PT · 10:00 PM UK
- Venue
- Meta Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Broadcast
- Paramount+ (as ufc.com lists it)
- Weight class
- Women's Flyweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 minutes
- Weigh-in
- Ernesta Kareckaite 126 lb, Melissa Gatto 126 lb
Preview
Ernesta Kareckaite (6-2) faces Melissa Gatto (9-3) in a women's flyweight bout on the prelims of UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at Meta Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada. Ernesta Kareckaite has won 1 of 3 UFC fights. Melissa Gatto has won 3 of 6 UFC fights, 3 by knockout.
Ernesta Kareckaite has a 2-inch reach advantage. Ernesta Kareckaite lands 5.62 significant strikes a minute, better than 89% of active UFC fighters. Melissa Gatto absorbs only 2.67 significant strikes a minute, better than 82% of active UFC fighters. Ernesta Kareckaite and Melissa Gatto have 1 common UFC opponent: Dione Barbosa.
The betting market makes Melissa Gatto a 52% favourite (−120). The line has moved toward Melissa Gatto since it opened.
Read more on this fight
All articles →How they fight
Significant strikes landed per round, averaged over each fighter's UFC career. Rounds a fight ended in are left out, so early finishes don't pull the averages down.
Common opponents
Opponents both had fought in the UFC, with the most recent meeting for each.
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Brendan Allen 27-7
vs Christian Leroy Duncan 15-2
Line moving to Duncan, 13 points since the open
−122▲+102
−210+180
−115 BetMGM+104 FanDuel
53%47%
50%50%
Matheus Camilo 11-3
vs Jai Herbert 14-6-1
−192+162
−185+161
−189 BetRivers+170 Caesars
63%37%
72%28%
Loopy Godinez 14-6
vs Ketlen Souza 17-6
Line moving to Godinez, 4 points since the open
▲−238+195
−190+165
−233 Caesars+198 FanDuel
68%32%
73%27%
Andre Fili 25-14 (1 NC)
vs Kai Kamaka III 18-8-1
Line moving to III, 4 points since the open
−152▲+128
−175+153
−145 BetMGM+132 BetRivers
58%42%
60%40%
Malcolm Wellmaker 10-2
vs Otari Tanzilovi 10-2
−208+176
−240+200
−200 BetMGM+185 Caesars
65%35%
51%49%
Julius Walker 7-3
vs Gerald Meerschaert 37-22
Line moving to Meerschaert, 5 points since the open
−303▲+245
−400+316
−303 BetMGM+250 Caesars
72%28%
80%20%
Francisco Prado 12-5
vs Ismael Bonfim 20-7
Line moving to Prado, 5 points since the open
▲−147+120
−119−101
−143 FanDuel+125 Caesars
57%43%
60%40%
Leon Shahbazyan 12-5
vs Niko Price 16-11 (2 NC)
Line moving to Shahbazyan, 7 points since the open
▲−145+122
−110−110
−143 DraftKings+125 Caesars
57%43%
59%41%
Felipe Franco 11-2
vs Brendson Ribeiro 17-11 (1 NC)
Line moving to Franco, 6 points since the open
▲−400+310
−270+222
−370 BetRivers+320 Caesars
77%23%
83%17%
RJ Harris 6-0
vs Allen Frye Jr. 6-1
Line moving to Harris, 3 points since the open
▲−364+288
−300+245
−345 BetRivers+300 Caesars
75%25%
81%19%
Alice Pereira 7-1
vs Daria Zhelezniakova 10-3
——
——
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67%33%
Questions and answers
When is Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto?
Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto is on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan. The prelims starts at 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT, 10:00 PM UK).
Where is Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto?
Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto takes place at Meta Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada.
How can I watch Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto?
ufc.com lists the prelims on Paramount+.
Who is favoured to win, Ernesta Kareckaite or Melissa Gatto?
Melissa Gatto is the betting favourite. With the bookmakers' margin removed, the market gives Melissa Gatto a 52% chance and Ernesta Kareckaite 48%. Best prices at US books: Ernesta Kareckaite, +102 at DraftKings; Melissa Gatto, −115 at BetMGM.
What does the CageOracle model predict for Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto?
The model gives Melissa Gatto a 54% chance.
How many rounds is Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto?
3 rounds of five minutes.
What are Ernesta Kareckaite and Melissa Gatto's records?
Ernesta Kareckaite is 6-2 (1-2 in the UFC). Melissa Gatto is 9-3 (3-3 in the UFC).
How old are Ernesta Kareckaite and Melissa Gatto?
Ernesta Kareckaite is 28 and Melissa Gatto is 30.
How tall are Ernesta Kareckaite and Melissa Gatto, and what is their reach?
Ernesta Kareckaite is 5'9" and has a 71" reach; Melissa Gatto is 5'5" and has a 69" reach.
Where are Ernesta Kareckaite and Melissa Gatto from?
Ernesta Kareckaite fights out of Kaunas, Lithuania; Melissa Gatto fights out of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Have Ernesta Kareckaite and Melissa Gatto fought before?
No. This is their first fight against each other in the UFC.