UFC 333: Volkanovski, 38, stops Evloev; Yan comes back to beat Dvalishvili again

Two champions in their thirties kept their belts at the Etihad Arena on Saturday. Three fighters who had never lost walked out with an L. In the fights the market called coin flips, our model kept backing the unbeaten record or the long streak, and kept losing.

Volkanovski solves Evloev

The main event closed at a coin flip: Alexander Volkanovski 50%, Movsar Evloev 50%. Our model had Evloev, 20-0 coming in, at 58%. In our data, he beat Lerone Murphy in March with nine takedowns from ten attempts.

He got his takedowns in round 1, three from seven. But Yahoo's live blog counted only 31 seconds of control from them. CBS has Volkanovski popping straight back up each time. Yahoo scored the round for Evloev, CBS for Volkanovski.

Evloev started round 2 well, landing two straight rights and a bodylock takedown. Volkanovski scrambled on top. Back on the feet, he dropped Evloev midway through the round and again near the end, per CBS. The challenger covered up under ground strikes, and referee Marc Goddard stopped it at 4:54, six seconds from the bell.

Our read: Evloev's game depends on keeping opponents down, and Volkanovski never stayed down long enough for it to control the fight. Evloev was gracious about it, via MMA Junkie on Yahoo:

"He's like good wine. Older, stronger, better. He's truly a legend."

The win was Volkanovski's ninth in featherweight title fights, passing Jose Aldo, according to Yahoo, CBS and UFC.com. CBS adds that at 38 he is the oldest man to defend the featherweight belt. He wants to keep stacking wins, according to Al Jazeera: "I'm choosing to do [fight]; I don't have to."

Yan stops 39 straight takedowns

The co-main started badly for the champion. Merab Dvalishvili took rounds 1 and 2 on all three cards, landing five takedowns. Then, per ESPN, Petr Yan stopped all 39 of Dvalishvili's attempts in rounds 3 to 5. He won 48-47 on all three cards and leads the trilogy 2-1.

Yahoo puts Dvalishvili's total at 58 attempts, a UFC record; theScore counts 56. Speaking through an interpreter, per ESPN, Yan said he expected it. "I knew that he was going to gas forward and eventually he was going to gas out."

Yan closed at 57%, down from 61% at the open, and our model had him at 62%. The late money went to Dvalishvili, even though our data has him landing two takedowns from 29 attempts in their December 2025 fight. Yan's callout afterwards, through an interpreter, via Yahoo:

"Give me Song Yadong, give me King Kong! Give me anybody! Just make the weight, and I will take you down."

Where our model went wrong

Our model picked eight winners from 14 fights. It disagreed with the closing line on three, and the market was right on all three. Each was a near coin flip at the close.

In all three, the model backed the fighter with the longer run. Evloev was 20-0, Nurullo Aliev 12-0, and Ramazan Temirov was on a 12-fight win streak, per Heavy. It also had Asaf Chopurov, 11-0, at 85%, though he was the market's pick too, at 82%.

We think the model treats a clean record or a long streak as proof of level. It can also mean nobody has solved the fighter yet. One card does not prove that, but it is what we will be checking.

The upsets

Colby Thicknesse closed at 18% (+425) against Chopurov, who was making his UFC debut, and won a split decision: 29-28, 29-28, 28-29. All three judges gave Thicknesse round 2.

UFCalendar has Thicknesse out-landing Chopurov 77 to 54 in significant strikes. Chopurov landed eight of 12 takedowns and had more than five minutes of control. Yahoo's play-by-play writer scored it for Chopurov, so this one is disputed.

The hints beforehand were thin. Chopurov had no UFC fights for anyone to judge, and Thicknesse had already won as an underdog, at 41% against Josias Musasa last year.

Dominick Reyes closed at 35% and knocked out Azamat Murzakanov at 2:40 of round 1. MMA Sucka describes low kicks that made Murzakanov pull his lead leg back and drop his hands. The head kick came over the top.

The market and our model both still had Murzakanov at 65%. Yahoo noted it was the second straight fight in which a head kick wobbled him. Paulo Costa stopped him in April, out-landing him 55 to 34 in our data. Reyes called out Costa and Khalil Rountree Jr. afterwards, per theScore.

The line, and the money

Of the 12 fights with closing odds, 11 had a favourite, however slight, and that favourite won nine. Santos vs Oki closed at exactly 50-50. Count Santos and it is 10 of 12.

The late money did worse. Five fights moved more than three points between open and close, and every time the money went toward the fighter who lost:

• Alexander Volkov opened at 70% (-270) and closed at 55% (-131). He won a unanimous decision.
• Lone'er Kavanagh opened at 59% and closed at 51%. He won in the first round.
• Bolaji Oki went from 42% at the open to 50% at the close, then lost to Daniel Santos.
• Yan drifted from 61% to 57%, and Aaron Pico from 60% to 57%. Both won.

Bonuses and other moments

Yan and Dvalishvili took Fight of the Night, and Volkanovski and Kavanagh Performance of the Night, at $100,000 each, per Sherdog. Bleacher Report lists $25,000 finish bonuses for Pico, Reyes, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev, Abus Magomedov and Kody Steele.

Yahoo counted about a dozen punches in Kavanagh's finish, ending with an uppercut. He told MMA Junkie, per Heavy, that he would be the backup for Joshua Van vs Manel Kape at UFC 336.

Pico got his first Octagon finish, according to UFC.com. Losene Keita protested the stoppage, though theScore notes he took several punches lying flat on his stomach. Pico then called fighters who avoid him "rankings squatters", per CBS.

Yakhyaev, 25, is 4-0 in the UFC with every win in round 1, according to theScore. Nicolle Caliari missed weight at 120.5 lb, per Yahoo, so her fight with Iasmin Lucindo went ahead at catchweight.

Rest of the card

• Lone'er Kavanagh def. Ramazan Temirov, KO/TKO, round 1 (4:28)
• Alexander Volkov def. Rizvan Kuniev, unanimous decision
• Aaron Pico def. Losene Keita, KO/TKO, round 1 (1:14)
• Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev def. Nikita Krylov, KO/TKO, round 1 (2:38)
• Abus Magomedov def. Cam Rowston, submission (guillotine choke), round 1 (1:44)
• Grant Dawson def. Nurullo Aliev, unanimous decision
• Abubakar Vagaev def. Jacob Malkoun, unanimous decision
• Daniel Santos def. Bolaji Oki, unanimous decision
• Kody Steele def. Noah Gugnon, KO/TKO, round 1 (3:54)
• Iasmin Lucindo def. Nicolle Caliari, unanimous decision