UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev sits at even money, but our model leans Evloev

UFC 333 is at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on Saturday, with the featherweight and bantamweight titles on the line.

Volkanovski vs. Evloev: the price hasn't budged

Alexander Volkanovski opened at -120, a 51% chance once the bookmakers' margin is taken out, with Movsar Evloev at -110. Across the five books we track, he is now -110 and Evloev is -112. That's 50% each, a one-point drift, and we found no weight, injury or camp news behind it.

The talk this week has been about the full distance. Volkanovski told UFC on Paramount+ that Evloev is "one of the better matchups for me", according to BJPenn.com. He added: "I just don't think anyone can beat me for 25 minutes." Evloev answered him through MMA Junkie:

I want to prove that he's not special. I can beat him over five rounds.

Where our model breaks from the market

Our model, which blends in the betting market, has Evloev at 56%. That six-point gap on a fight the books call even is the widest on the card.

We think the reason is wrestling. Evloev lands 4.78 takedowns per 15 minutes (97th percentile) and spends 36% of his fight time in control. Volkanovski stops 69% of takedowns, only 58th percentile. Diego Lopes took him down twice in five tries in January.

There's a fair case the other way. Volkanovski lands 5.99 significant strikes a minute to Evloev's 3.91. Evloev lost or split the first round in two of his last three fights, and Arnold Allen won the early striking in the third. His takedowns don't always stick: Allen kept scrambling free, and Evloev landed 5 of 17 attempts that night. His March win over Lerone Murphy was a majority decision that none of the 17 media scorers on MMADecisions gave to him.

Our lean is Evloev, narrowly. Volkanovski is 38, was dropped in both Lopes fights, and went 3 of 18 on his own takedowns across them. Watch rounds three to five. Evloev took over the second half against Murphy, though Murphy told his corner his hip had "popped" after round three, according to Boxing News. Volkanovski won the fifth round on all six judges' cards across the two Lopes fights.

On the prelims, the model has Nurullo Aliev at 53% against Grant Dawson, where the market has him at 49%. Both are control grapplers (Dawson 66% of fight time, Aliev 59%). Aliev is 12-0. Dawson was knocked out by Manuel Torres last December but submitted Mateusz Rebecki in May.

Yan vs. Dvalishvili 3

Petr Yan is -185 (61%) to keep the bantamweight title, about where he opened at -175. Our model is a little higher on him at 65%. Last December he closed at +320 (23%) and still beat Merab Dvalishvili clearly, 49-46, 49-46, 48-47, taking rounds three to five on every card.

Yan won that fight by stuffing the wrestling. Dvalishvili landed 2 of 29 takedowns, while Yan's jab bloodied his face and body kicks visibly hurt him, as ESPN reported. Yan also took him down five times in nine tries. In their first fight, in 2023, Dvalishvili shot 49 times, landed 11 and won every round on every card.

Dvalishvili says he got the plan wrong last time. "I was chasing his head too much. Now I'm gonna chase his body, then mix it up," he told UFC on Paramount+, via Low Kick MMA. He also told Arab News he's "ready for a 25-minute war".

The open question is Yan's back. After the title win he had a nine-hour surgery on damaged lumbar discs. His first shadowboxing video went up on August 8, according to Low Kick MMA. No report we read says he has sparred fully since. His takedown defence was the base of the last win. If Dvalishvili's early shots start landing, the back is the first thing to suspect.

Our lean is Yan, in line with the model. Dvalishvili is 35 and fought four title fights in 2025. In April he said his nose is broken in two places and that he's putting off surgery, Low Kick MMA reported.

Volkov vs. Kuniev

This is the line that has moved. Alexander Volkov opened at -270 (70%) and is now -118 (51%) against Rizvan Kuniev. None of the reports we read explains it, and there's no injury, weight or camp news for either man. Our model has Volkov at 52%, in step with today's price.

Volkov is a 6'7" kickboxer with an 80-inch reach who wins at range. He lands 58% of his significant strikes (92nd percentile). In May he out-landed Waldo Cortes Acosta 88 to 54 with leg kicks, body kicks and the jab. All three of his last fights were close, including a split loss to Ciryl Gane that 19 of 20 media scorers gave to him.

Kuniev has never tried a takedown in the UFC. He wants the fence and the clinch, where he throws knees. Against Almeida he held 395 seconds of control without a single takedown. In July he broke Tyrell Fortune down with knees. Before the third-round finish, Fortune told his corner a rib injury was making it hard to breathe, according to Cageside Press.

Cortes Acosta caught Volkov with a quick two-punch combination and right hands when he closed the gap. Kuniev, at 6'4", took a Fortune right hand in the first round and kept walking him down to the clinch. But Kuniev avoids only 48% of strikes (20th percentile), so the walk in costs him. Our lean is Volkov, narrowly, as long as he keeps it in the open. He turns 38 on fight night.

When it starts

In the US, every part of the card streams on Paramount+. In the UK, UFCalendar lists TNT Sports, with the main card on TNT Sports Box Office.

• Early prelims: 10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT, 3:00 PM UK
• Prelims: 12:00 PM ET, 9:00 AM PT, 5:00 PM UK
• Main card: 2:00 PM ET, 11:00 AM PT, 7:00 PM UK