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UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

Results, closing odds and the model's pre-fight numbers

Sat, Jul 25, 202612 fights · 1 won by the underdog

UFC Fight Night results

All 12 fights
Main event Magomed Ankalaev def. Bogdan Guskov KO/TKO, round 5 (2:41) · the closing line gave Magomed Ankalaev 81%
Favourites won11 of 12
Upsets1
KO/TKO5
Submissions3
Decisions4

Upsets

Biggest first. The percentage is the winner's chance at the closing line, with the bookmakers' margin removed.

Muhammad Saidov def. Dustin Jacoby KO/TKO, round 2 (4:49) · 38% at the close

Bonuses

ufc.com hasn't posted the bonuses yet.

Model against market

The fights where our model and the closing line picked different winners. They split on 1; the model was right on 0.

Ramazan Temirov def. Steve Erceg Market right · model 42%, close 51%

Every result

Main Card
Magomed Ankalaev def. Bogdan Guskov KO/TKO, round 5 (2:41) −556+397 −300+250 —— 81%19% 85%15% Ramazan Temirov def. Steve Erceg KO/TKO, round 1 (4:21) −115−105 +130−150 —— 51%49% 42%58% Magomed Zaynukov def. Damian Rzepecki decision, 3 rounds −260+210 −275+235 —— 69%31% 69%31% Rizvan Kuniev def. Tyrell Fortune KO/TKO, round 3 (1:12) −328+261 −250+210 —— 73%27% 72%28% Abubakar Vagaev def. Saygid Izagakhmaev decision, 3 rounds −198+164 −205+175 —— 64%36% 52%48%
Prelims
Valter Walker def. Thomas Petersen submission, round 1 (1:32) −189+157 −250+210 —— 63%37% 68%32% Muhammad Saidov def. Dustin Jacoby KO/TKO, round 2 (4:49)Underdog won —−188 —— —— 38%62% —— Sam Patterson def. Santiago Ponzinibbio KO/TKO, round 2 (3:06) −571+412 −450+350 —— 81%19% 77%23% Axel Sola def. Ismael Bonfim submission, round 1 (4:44) −198+166 −170+145 —— 64%36% 64%36% Magomed Tuchalov def. Brendson Ribeiro decision, 3 rounds −909+590 −550+420 —— 86%14% 81%19% Nurullo Aliev def. Mike Davis decision, 3 rounds −233+189 −172+147 —— 67%33% 64%36% Abdul Hussein def. Cody Gibson submission, round 3 (3:07) −667+455 −350+285 —— 83%17% 85%15%

UFC Fight Night recap

Magomed Ankalaev beat Bogdan Guskov by KO/TKO, round 5 (2:41) in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov on Saturday, July 25, 2026.

Favourites won 11 of the 12 fights with closing odds. The biggest upset was Muhammad Saidov over Dustin Jacoby: the closing line gave Muhammad Saidov a 38% chance. By method: 5 knockouts, 3 submissions and 4 decisions.

The CageOracle model and the betting market disagreed on 1 fight; the model was right on 0.

Questions and answers

Who won the main event of UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov?

Magomed Ankalaev beat Bogdan Guskov by KO/TKO, round 5 (2:41).

What were the upsets at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov?

Muhammad Saidov over Dustin Jacoby (38% at the close).

When was UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov?

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov took place on Saturday, July 25, 2026.