UFC Vegas 123 preview: Moicano's right hand and back takes against Tom Nolan's knees

Renato Moicano was meant to fight Brian Ortega at UFC 331 in September. Ortega pulled out of the rescheduled fight with a cut, his second withdrawal. The UFC gave Moicano the October 31 Apex headliner against Tom Nolan instead. It is Nolan's first UFC main event, according to Cageside Press, and in six UFC fights he has never seen a fourth round.

Moicano admitted it was a tougher fight. "Tom Nolan would be harder, but it is what it is, you know?" he said, as reported by EssentiallySports. Nolan had asked for this fight in June, right after beating Fares Ziam. He told MMA Junkie he had studied Moicano's win over Benoit Saint Denis and praised the way he uses "the body triangle".

The market has it close. Nolan is -125 in the five-book market, a 53% chance, and the price hasn't moved since it opened. Our model has Nolan a little higher, at 55%. In the co-main, unbeaten Jacobe Smith (13-0) is about a 70% favourite over Randy Brown at the one book pricing it so far.

How Moicano gets his finishes

Moicano stands in the centre behind a stiff jab and a straight right, then does his real damage on top. Against Saint Denis in Paris, he caught a kick within about 30 seconds and spun him to the mat. He took the back with a body lock, climbed to mount, and won a 10-8 round. The doctor stopped it after round two with both of Saint Denis's eyes swollen.

Thirty-three of his 50 significant strikes that night landed on the ground. Against Jalin Turner at UFC 300 it was 24 of 36. His takedowns tend to come off a reaction, not a clean shot from range. Think of a caught kick, a clinch, or a hurt opponent he follows down.

His April win over Chris Duncan went that way. Duncan kicked his lead leg, and Moicano answered with a straight punch that sent him back to the fence. In round two Duncan landed an overhand, and Moicano dropped him to a knee with a short counter (Cageside calls it a left hook). He rushed in, locked the body triangle and finished with a choke from the back at 3:14.

He told Supersport afterwards that he "jabbed and kicked his stomach and saw him slow down." Duncan, Turner and Saint Denis were all finished in round two or at the end of it.

The holes showed up against Beneil Dariush in June 2025. Dariush landed 16 of 19 leg strikes, rocked him twice with left hooks, and went 5 of 5 on takedowns. Moicano dropped him in round one, but Cageside said he "was gassed out" by the third. Turner's counter left also dropped him in the first round at UFC 300.

How Nolan wins

Nolan is 6'3" and a southpaw, though his 73-inch reach is only an inch longer than Moicano's. He lands 4.72 significant strikes a minute, in the 73rd percentile, and he likes to spin. Recaps of his fights mention a spinning back fist against Alex Reyes and Viacheslav Borshchev, and a spinning elbow against Ziam.

His best close-range weapon is the knee. A left knee to the body folded Victor Martinez in 2024, and he punished a Reyes takedown attempt with a knee. He likes the clinch and the fence, and he grapples well. His 1.39 submission attempts per 15 minutes sit in the 93rd percentile, and he choked out Charlie Campbell from the back in September 2025.

The Ziam fight in June was his best result. He closed at +255, won 29-28 on all three cards, out-landed Ziam 31 to 16 and held 6:47 of control. But the third round went the other way. Ziam took him down, took his back and threatened a rear-naked choke, and all three judges gave Ziam the round.

Martinez dropped him with a right hand (per UFC.com), and Campbell put him down with a left (per Cageside). Nikolas Motta stopped him in 63 seconds in his UFC debut. His striking defence is 48% (22nd percentile), against Moicano's 60%. Reyes and Ziam both got to his back.

Where it's decided

The sharpest edge for Moicano is his straight right. Nolan has been dropped or finished in the first round of three of his six UFC fights. Moicano's right hand down the middle is the punch that dropped Dariush.

Nolan's best tool is his left side. His southpaw straight left dropped Reyes to a knee, and in an open-stance fight his left knee and kicks travel to Moicano's open side. Moicano has had trouble with kicks and body work. Turner's front kicks seemed to bother him early, and Saint Denis landed 10 body strikes to his none.

On the mat, we think Moicano is the better back-taker by some distance. Nolan has already given up his back to Reyes and Ziam. But Nolan's takedown accuracy is only 27%, so most of the grappling is likely to start when Moicano chooses it. The clinch, where Nolan likes to fight, is also where Moicano got Turner down.

The later rounds

Neither man has much evidence here. Moicano's last fight past three rounds was a decision loss to Rafael dos Anjos in March 2022. He is 37 and will have been out about seven months, and in the third round against Dariush he was out-landed 26 to 8.

Nolan kept his output high through three rounds against Reyes. But he lost the third on two cards against Borshchev and on all three against Ziam. Both times he spent much of that round underneath. After Ziam he also said he had been "coming into these fights too light" and had changed to "a proper sweat-out".

Our lean

We lean Nolan, narrowly, and about where the market and our model have it. The first ten minutes look like Moicano's. His jab and right hand are the cleaner tools, and round two is where he has finished people. If Nolan gets through that, we think his youth, output and body knees make him the likelier man in rounds three to five.

What would flip it is an early knockdown. Since his debut loss, Nolan has been dropped in the first round twice, by Martinez and Campbell, and won inside the round both times. Moicano is more dangerous in that moment: following a hurt man down to the back is how he beat Duncan.

A late route for Nolan: the front headlock

If Moicano tires and starts shooting to win rounds, a less obvious route opens for Nolan. Moicano's shots get stopped by good wrestlers: 0 of 3 against Dariush, and two of those ended with him on his back. His neck has also been exposed in scrambles. Islam Makhachev caught him in a D'Arce as he rose to his knees, and Ortega submitted him with a guillotine in 2017.

Nolan has the front headlock for it. Against Reyes he stuffed a shot in the third round and turned the sprawl straight into a D'Arce that, per Cageside, looked close. Watch for a tired Moicano level-changing in the fourth round. That may be Nolan's best chance of a finish.