Nolan a slight favourite over Moicano at UFC Vegas 123 as Jacobe Smith steps in

The card has changed twice in the last week. Carlos Leal pulled out against Randy Brown, MMASucka reported, and unbeaten Jacobe Smith took the fight on 12 days' notice, according to FightSports.tv.

Then on Oct. 24, Azamat Bekoev posted on X that he had to pull out of his fight with Andre Petroski. He said he had an anaphylactic reaction and collapsed in a CVS, as reported by MMASucka. RotoWire reported that Petroski will face Mantas Kondratavicius on Nov. 7 instead, but we haven't seen that confirmed anywhere else.

Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan

Nolan is -125 (five books), a 53% chance once the bookmakers' margin is removed. Moicano is +105, or 47%. Our data shows this line opening at -125, but MMAOddsBreaker had Nolan opening at -170, so we aren't reading anything into the movement. Our model has Nolan at 55%, close to the market.

Moicano (21-7-1) was supposed to fight Brian Ortega at UFC 331, until Ortega withdrew with a cut from training. It was the second time Ortega had pulled out of the rematch. Moicano had spent months training and cutting for Ortega, Heavy reported. The switch came on Sept. 14, though, so he has had about seven weeks to prepare for Nolan.

He told Ariel Helwani that "Tom Nolan would be harder, but it is what it is," per EssentiallySports.

Moicano's best weapon is the straight punch down the middle. A straight right dropped Beneil Dariush late in round 1 in June 2025. In April he timed Chris Duncan's leg kicks with a straight. In round 2 he hurt Duncan and jumped on his back for the rear-naked choke.

We think that punch will find Nolan, whose career striking defence is 48%, in the 22nd percentile. Nikolas Motta finished him with a right hand and ground-and-pound in his UFC debut in January 2024. Cageside Press says Charlie Campbell dropped him with a left hand last year, though the official stats show no knockdown.

Nolan, 26, wins with volume and pressure. The 6'3" southpaw lands 4.72 significant strikes a minute, including spinning elbows and back fists. He walks opponents to the fence and hunts chokes on the mat (1.39 submission attempts per 15 minutes, 93rd percentile).

That matters because Moicano's last two losses came against grapplers. Dariush went 5 for 5 on takedowns, and Islam Makhachev, whom he fought on a day's notice, submitted him in round 1.

Then there's the distance. Moicano, 37, looked gassed in round 3 against Dariush. Nolan lost round 3 on five of the six official cards in his last two decisions, and this is his first UFC headliner. Moicano has been 25 minutes once, losing a decision to Rafael dos Anjos in 2022; Nolan never has in the UFC.

Our lean: Nolan, narrowly. We think his volume is more likely to hold up late, though he has never been past 15 minutes in the UFC. If Moicano lands his straight early, that lean is in trouble.

Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith

Smith is -278, a 70% chance, and Brown is +210. Smith opened at -325 (74%). Only one bookmaker prices this fight so far, and no report explains the drift. Our model has Smith at 75%, close to where he opened.

Smith (13-0) fights 28 days after stopping Bruce Whitehead at UFC 332. All four UFC wins came inside the distance, in about 15 minutes of total cage time. The former Oklahoma State wrestler lifts and slams from a body lock, then finishes from top. He used elbows from side control on Josiah Harrell and ground-and-pound on Whitehead.

Brown (20-8) has lost two straight: a knee knockout by Gabriel Bonfim last November, then a clear decision to Kevin Holland in April. He has a 78-inch reach to Smith's 72 and stops 75% of takedowns over his career. He's also dangerous off his back, throwing elbows, an upkick and a triangle attempt at Holland.

The fight may turn on Brown's lead leg. Bonfim landed 23 leg strikes on him and Holland 22, and Smith chopped Harrell's lead leg with outside kicks in February. Brown's best route is the jab and right hand early, then hoping Smith slows as he did against Niko Price. Smith was "visibly more tired" in round 2 of that fight, according to Cageside Press.

Our lean: Smith, before the final bell. Brown's durability is a concern. Nicolas Dalby knocked him down in round 1 in April 2025, though Brown came back to knock Dalby out in round 2. Bonfim stopped him that November.

Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos

Luana is -250, a 69% chance, with Yana at +205. Our model is much firmer on Luana at 78%. That's the widest model-market gap on the card.

Our case for Luana is control. She spends 55% of her fight time in control, the 98th percentile. In June she controlled Karol Rosa for 12 minutes and 21 seconds of a 15-minute fight, despite landing just 2 of 10 takedowns. Yana's career takedown defence is 52% (24th percentile), and Holly Holm went 4 for 6 on takedowns in beating her in March 2023.

Yana's case is on the feet. She lands 58% of her significant strikes (93rd percentile), while Luana lands only 2.53 a minute (11th percentile). Yana has won three straight decisions, two as the underdog: Miesha Tate at +139 in May 2025 and Macy Chiasson at +164 last October.

Luana's only loss in our recent data came when she couldn't get Casey O'Neill down. She went 1 for 5 on takedowns and was out-landed 83 to 41.

Luana doesn't need many takedowns to take over, and Yana hasn't fought in more than a year. Our lean: Luana, on the scorecards.

When it starts and where to watch

Both parts of the card stream on Paramount+.

• Prelims: 5:00 PM ET, 2:00 PM PT, 9:00 PM UK
• Main card: 8:00 PM ET, 5:00 PM PT, 12:00 AM UK (early Sunday)