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UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

Results, closing odds and the model's pre-fight numbers

Sat, Aug 15, 202612 fights · 3 won by the underdog

UFC 330 results

All 12 fights
Main event Islam Makhachev def. Ian Machado Garry decision, 5 rounds · the closing line gave Islam Makhachev 74%
Favourites won9 of 12
Upsets3
KO/TKO5
Submissions3
Decisions4

Upsets

Biggest first. The percentage is the winner's chance at the closing line, with the bookmakers' margin removed.

Jeremiah Wells def. Myktybek Orolbai submission, round 3 (1:24) · 11% at the close (+750) Chidi Njokuani def. Joel Alvarez decision, 3 rounds · 26% at the close (+275) Neil Magny def. Ramiz Brahimaj KO/TKO, round 2 (3:20) · 43% at the close (+125)

Bonuses

ufc.com hasn't posted the bonuses yet.

Model against market

The fights where our model and the closing line picked different winners. They split on 3; the model was right on 0.

Jalin Turner def. Kaue Fernandes Market right · model 48%, close 52% Dustin Stoltzfus def. Mansur Abdul-Malik Market right · model 12%, close 50% Tresean Gore def. Vicente Luque Market right · model 44%, close 51%

Every result

Main Card
Islam Makhachev def. Ian Machado Garry decision, 5 rounds −345+275 −400+330 —— 74%26% 72%28% Mackenzie Dern def. Gillian Robertson decision, 5 rounds −213+180 −211+181 —— 66%34% 62%38% Jalin Turner def. Kaue Fernandes KO/TKO, round 1 (0:39) −117−103 −200+174 —— 52%48% 48%52% Dustin Stoltzfus def. Mansur Abdul-Malik submission, round 2 (4:25) −115−115 +476−650 —— 50%50% 12%88% Esteban Ribovics def. Edson Barboza KO/TKO, round 2 (1:32) −769+530 −300+245 —— 85%15% 89%11%
Prelims
Chidi Njokuani def. Joel Alvarez decision, 3 roundsUnderdog won +275−345 +245−300 —— 26%74% 17%83% Charles Johnson def. Eduardo Chapolin submission, round 3 (1:36) −118−102 —— —— 52%48% 52%48% Donte Johnson def. Eric McConico KO/TKO, round 1 (1:38) −333+270 −225+189 —— 74%26% 83%17% Tresean Gore def. Vicente Luque decision, 3 rounds −116−104 −110−110 —— 51%49% 44%56%
Early Prelims
Lucas Fernando def. Rafael Tobias KO/TKO, round 3 (1:10) −303+240 −205+177 —— 72%28% 68%32% Neil Magny def. Ramiz Brahimaj KO/TKO, round 2 (3:20)Underdog won +125−149 +105−125 —— 43%57% 44%56% Jeremiah Wells def. Myktybek Orolbai submission, round 3 (1:24)Underdog won +750−1250 +263−325 —— 11%89% 6%94%

UFC 330 recap

Islam Makhachev beat Ian Machado Garry by decision, 5 rounds in the main event of UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry on Saturday, August 15, 2026.

Favourites won 9 of the 12 fights with closing odds. The biggest upset was Jeremiah Wells over Myktybek Orolbai: the closing line gave Jeremiah Wells a 11% chance (+750). In all, 3 underdogs won. By method: 5 knockouts, 3 submissions and 4 decisions.

The CageOracle model and the betting market disagreed on 3 fights; the model was right on 0.

Questions and answers

Who won the main event of UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry?

Islam Makhachev beat Ian Machado Garry by decision, 5 rounds.

What were the upsets at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry?

Jeremiah Wells over Myktybek Orolbai (11% at the close), Chidi Njokuani over Joel Alvarez (26% at the close) and Neil Magny over Ramiz Brahimaj (43% at the close).

When was UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry?

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry took place on Saturday, August 15, 2026.