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UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

Results, closing odds and the model's pre-fight numbers

Sat, Jul 11, 202614 fights · 3 won by the underdog

UFC 329 results

All 14 fights
Main event Max Holloway def. Conor McGregor KO/TKO, round 1 (1:09) · the closing line gave Max Holloway 71%
Favourites won11 of 14
Upsets3
KO/TKO8
Submissions3
Decisions3

Upsets

Biggest first. The percentage is the winner's chance at the closing line, with the bookmakers' margin removed.

Brandon Royval def. Lone'er Kavanagh submission, round 3 (3:40) · 32% at the close (+195) Mario Bautista def. Cory Sandhagen decision, 3 rounds · 43% at the close (+120) Paddy Pimblett def. Benoit Saint Denis submission, round 1 (0:52) · 48% at the close (+100)

Bonuses

ufc.com hasn't posted the bonuses yet.

Model against market

The fights where our model and the closing line picked different winners. They split on 1; the model was right on 0.

King Green def. Terrance McKinney Market right · model 49%, close 52%

Every result

Main Card
Max Holloway def. Conor McGregor KO/TKO, round 1 (1:09) −295+235 −270+230 —— 71%29% 75%25% Paddy Pimblett def. Benoit Saint Denis submission, round 1 (0:52)Underdog won +100−122 −110−110 —— 48%52% 47%53% Mario Bautista def. Cory Sandhagen decision, 3 roundsUnderdog won +120−148 +170−200 —— 43%57% 41%59% Brandon Royval def. Lone'er Kavanagh submission, round 3 (3:40)Underdog won +195−250 +170−200 —— 32%68% 31%69% King Green def. Terrance McKinney KO/TKO, round 1 (4:59) −120−104 +175−205 —— 52%48% 49%51%
Prelims
Robert Whittaker def. Nikita Krylov KO/TKO, round 3 (1:01) −125+102 −104−116 —— 53%47% 53%47% Gable Steveson def. Elisha Ellison KO/TKO, round 1 (2:31) −1430+850 −1800+900 —— 90%10% 93%7% Adrian Yanez def. Cody Garbrandt KO/TKO, round 1 (2:47) −420+310 −250+210 —— 77%23% 79%21% Luke Riley def. Kai Kamaka III KO/TKO, round 1 (3:03) −265+205 −400+330 —— 69%31% 74%26%
Early Prelims
Wang Cong def. Tracy Cortez decision, 3 rounds −124+100 −133+113 —— 53%47% 53%47% Damian Pinas def. Cesar Almeida KO/TKO, round 1 (4:44) −265+205 −265+225 —— 69%31% 73%27% Farid Basharat def. John Garza decision, 3 rounds −715+500 −525+410 —— 84%16% 87%13% Ryan Gandra def. Zach Reese KO/TKO, round 1 (1:15) −136+110 −160+140 —— 55%45% 57%43% Alessandro Costa def. Cody Durden submission, round 2 (2:19) −235+185 −300+250 —— 67%33% 71%29%

UFC 329 recap

Max Holloway beat Conor McGregor by KO/TKO, round 1 (1:09) in the main event of UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 on Saturday, July 11, 2026.

Favourites won 11 of the 14 fights with closing odds. The biggest upset was Brandon Royval over Lone'er Kavanagh: the closing line gave Brandon Royval a 32% chance (+195). In all, 3 underdogs won. By method: 8 knockouts, 3 submissions and 3 decisions.

The CageOracle model and the betting market disagreed on 1 fight; the model was right on 0.

Questions and answers

Who won the main event of UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2?

Max Holloway beat Conor McGregor by KO/TKO, round 1 (1:09).

What were the upsets at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2?

Brandon Royval over Lone'er Kavanagh (32% at the close), Mario Bautista over Cory Sandhagen (43% at the close) and Paddy Pimblett over Benoit Saint Denis (48% at the close).

When was UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2?

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 took place on Saturday, July 11, 2026.