UFC Vegas 124: Johnny Walker gets off the floor to stop Waldo Cortes Acosta

Johnny Walker came into Saturday with two knockout losses from 2024 on his record, to Magomed Ankalaev and Volkan Oezdemir. At the Meta Apex he was dropped in the first round and wobbled in the third. He still stopped Waldo Cortes Acosta at 2:27 of round three.

The closing line gave Walker a 34% chance. Four other underdogs won on the night, two of them, Ollie Schmid and Andre Petroski, with no warning in the numbers.

How Walker won it

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Sean Brady was supposed to headline until Brady pulled out, Cageside Press reported on Oct 29. Walker took this fight on short notice, five weeks after knocking out Mick Parkin.

He opened with kicks to the legs and body. Cortes Acosta pinned him on the fence and briefly dropped him, but Walker got straight up and answered with a high kick. All three of Sherdog's scorers still gave him the round.

In the second, Cortes Acosta landed a right hand over the top, got Walker to the mat and worked elbows and short punches from half guard. He kept control but "wasn't mounting much damage," Damon Martin wrote. By the bell both men were visibly tired. Uncrowned had Cortes Acosta up on two of three cards going into the third, though all three Sherdog scorers had it level.

An overhand right wobbled Walker early in round three. Midway through it, Walker landed a body kick and then what Mike Sloan of Sherdog called a question mark kick to the head. A backfist buckled Cortes Acosta's knees, a right hand put him down, and Jason Herzog pulled Walker off after the follow-up punches.

Afterwards he went straight at his critics, as Uncrowned quoted him:

F*** everybody who says I have no chin.

What it means for both men

Walker is 2-0 since moving up from light heavyweight, and UFC.com says the win "punched his ticket to the Top 10". He told MMA Fighting he is staying at heavyweight for good rather than cutting about 40 lb to make 205, according to Boxing News. MMA Sucka reports that his friend Alexander Volkov cornered him, and that Walker wants a title shot after Volkov, who is reportedly next in line.

For Cortes Acosta, it is three straight losses. Curtis Blaydes took him down four times in September, and Volkov outlanded him 88 to 54 in May. We think this is the costliest of the three: it was his first main event, he had Walker down in the first and wobbled in the third, and he still lost.

Cortes Acosta opened at 72% and closed at 66%, so the money moved towards Walker before the fight. Our model had Cortes Acosta at 64%, a touch less sure than the market.

The upsets

Schmid was the biggest, at 24% on the closing line. Nothing pointed at it. Keiichiro Nakamura's price firmed from 74% to 76%, and Schmid had been knocked out in the first round of his UFC debut in May. All three judges gave him the first two rounds, which was enough to survive a third-round knockdown and win 29-28 across the board.

Petroski won at 28%. He survived a rough first round, then took Mantas Kondratavicius down, climbed to mount and finished him at 4:39 of the second. MMA Junkie notes it snapped a three-fight losing streak and was his first finish since May 2022.

Mitch Raposo beat debutant Marcos Degli at 32%, ending Degli's 13-fight win streak, per UFC.com. Along with Walker, this was the upset the market leaned towards, with Raposo moving from 28% to 32%. It is also his third straight win, all three as an underdog.

Murtazali Magomedov's win over Jose Delano at 48% was barely an upset at all. He actually opened as the favourite at 58%. It was the most disputed decision of the night: media on MMADecisions split 5-4 for Magomedov, with all three Sherdog scorers among the four for Delano. Cageside's headline says the late knockdown, an overhand left, sealed it.

What the market got right

Favourites won 9 of 14. In the nine fights where the line moved five points or more, the money ended up on the winner seven times.

The two exceptions were both on the prelims. Magomedov drifted from favourite to underdog and won anyway. Kondratavicius went from 50% at the open to 72% at the close, then lost to Petroski.

The biggest swing of the night was on Gabriel Lorenco, from 67% to 41%. Thomas Petersen was a late replacement for Alvin Hines, and our data can't show whether that opening price was set before the switch.

How our model did

The model picked 10 of 14 winners. It disagreed with the market on only one fight, Delano against Magomedov, and its 52% on Magomedov came good. Given how many scorers had Delano winning, we won't make much of that.

It missed all four real upsets, and it was more confident than the market against Schmid (19%), Petroski (22%) and Raposo (30%). Our model blends with the betting market once odds are posted, so its misses tend to follow the market's.

Suarez asks for the belt

Tatiana Suarez beat Virna Jandiroba 30-27, 30-27, 29-28 as a 66% favourite. She shot single legs all night and spent more than half the fight on top. Jandiroba's best moment was a kneebar at the end of round two, which MMA Junkie says she fully extended before the horn.

It was Suarez's third straight win, and she told Michael Bisping, via MMA Junkie: "I want that belt." Mackenzie Dern holds it. Jandiroba lost a five-round decision to her in October 2025, and Zhang Weili beat Suarez in a title fight that February.

Smith's minute, Petersen's comeback

Elijah Smith needed exactly one minute to knock out Davey Grant, as a 74% favourite. UFC.com says it was his ninth straight win. The fight finished his first UFC contract, and MMA Junkie reports he spoke with Hunter Campbell cageside. "I'm not even close to my prime," he told Sherdog.

Grant, 40, was knocked out for the first time, according to MMA Junkie. He made "no excuses" and said he would get back to work.

Petersen was knocked down twice in the first round by Lorenco, per Sherdog. Cageside adds an illegal knee the referee missed. Petersen dropped Lorenco in the second and stopped him with 13 seconds left in the third.

Bonuses

Walker and Cortes Acosta earned Fight of the Night, $100,000 each. Smith and Petersen took Performance of the Night. Heavy and Cageside both list $25,000 finish bonuses for Austin Bashi, Petroski and Jose Souza, and Cageside adds Nina Milosevic.

Rest of the card

• Lucas Fernando def. Billy Elekana, unanimous decision
• Nina Milosevic def. Priscila Cachoeira, KO/TKO, round 2 (3:40)
• Karine Silva def. Gabriella Fernandes, unanimous decision
• Austin Bashi def. Carlos Calderon, submission (rear naked choke), round 1 (1:07)
• Seokhyeon Ko def. Wellington Turman, unanimous decision
• Jose Souza def. Jonny Parsons, KO/TKO, round 1 (4:16)