UFC 334: Gane is -235 vs Hokit, but our model sees a closer fight

Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit

Gane opened at -150 for his first defence of the heavyweight title, a 58% chance once the bookmakers' margin is taken out. Four books now have him at -235 (67%), with Hokit at +183. Most of that move came almost at once: Boxing News had BetOnline at -235 on September 20, the day after the fight was announced.

No injury, weight or camp news has been reported for either man, and no report we read explains the move. Our model has Gane at 58% and Hokit at 42%, even after blending in the betting market. That is the biggest gap between us and the books on the main card.

Gane, 36, beat Alex Pereira for the interim belt in June, dropping him with a jab and finishing him at 1:27 of round two. He was promoted to undisputed champion after Tom Aspinall vacated. His career striking numbers are elite: 61% accuracy (97th percentile) and only 2.22 significant strikes absorbed a minute.

Hokit is 10-0, but he is a small heavyweight and gives up eight inches of reach here (73" to 81"). He absorbs 6.12 significant strikes a minute, in the 6th percentile. His coach, Mike Winkeljohn, told Submission Radio that "Ciryl's length would be a problem for us if we just stood there," as reported by MMA Sucka.

The reason we're less sure is Gane's wrestling. His takedown defence is 44%, in the 11th percentile, and Jon Jones took him down twice and submitted him in 2:04.

In their December 2024 rematch, Alexander Volkov landed three of four takedowns and won the third round on top. Cageside Press wrote that "Gane appeared to have tired" there. He got the split decision, but 19 of 20 media scorers on MMADecisions had Volkov winning.

Hokit shoots his double-leg under a punch and drags people back down when they try to stand on the fence. He did exactly that to Derrick Lewis in June before stopping him at 4:09 of round two. The warning sign for him is April's win over Curtis Blaydes, who took him down twice in round one. The get-ups visibly drained Hokit, though he rallied to take the last two rounds on every card.

This is five rounds, and Hokit has never fought past the third. Our lean: Gane, behind the jab and inside leg kicks, the pattern that led to both of his recent round-two finishes. We think Hokit's takedowns make the first ten minutes more dangerous than -235 suggests.

Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes

Harrison is -192 (63%) with Nunes at +160. Our model is higher on the champion, at 70%.

Harrison wins by clinching on the fence, tripping or throwing, then landing elbows from the top. She holds control for 59% of her fight time, in the 98th percentile. She finished Holly Holm with a rear-naked choke and Julianna Peña with a kimura at 4:55 of round two.

The problem is getting there. Her takedown accuracy is only 38%, and Ketlen Vieira stopped six of her eight attempts and kept her standing for all of round two. Nunes defends 81% of takedowns. Her counter right also punishes opponents who rush in, and it scored two of her three knockdowns of Peña at UFC 277.

Both are coming off long breaks. Nunes is 38 and hasn't fought since she shut out Irene Aldana in June 2023. Harrison hasn't fought since June 2025 and had a two-level neck fusion after pulling out of their January date.

Our lean: Harrison. If her early clinch entries keep getting stuffed, though, watch for Nunes's right hand as Harrison comes in. Larissa Pacheco caught her coming in and staggered her in the 2022 PFL final, according to Cageside Press. Vieira also bloodied her nose with a 1-2 early in round three.

Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland

This line has flipped. Medic opened as a +132 underdog (42%) and is now a -161 favourite (59%), with Holland at +135. None of the reports we read explain the move. Our model agrees with the current price at 60%.

Medic's left hand started the finish in each of his last three fights. It was a straight left on Muslim Salikhov at 1:03 and a left hook on Geoff Neal at 1:19. Against Daniel Rodriguez it was a left, then a right, in 30 seconds. He has never been to a decision as a pro.

After Belgrade he said his knee had "popped out of place" in fight week and needed arthroscopic surgery, according to Heavy. We haven't seen a report on how that recovery went.

Holland has a ten-inch reach edge (81" to 71") and likes calf kicks early. They marked up Randy Brown's shin in April. That matters, because Rodriguez's first low kick in Belgrade either tripped or dropped Medic, depending on the report.

But Holland gets hit. Brown buckled him in the first round, and Rodriguez dropped him twice in round two in July 2025. His front-headlock chokes need an opponent who changes levels, and Medic hasn't attempted a takedown in his last five UFC fights.

Our lean: Medic, early. His last four wins took a combined 3:55, per MMA Sucka, so nobody has seen what he looks like in a second round lately. That is Holland's opening if his jab and kicks get him past the first round without a big exchange.

When it starts

All three parts of the card stream on Paramount+, per our event page. UK times run from Saturday night into Sunday morning.