Robert Whittaker says a fight with Alex Pereira at 205 "would be fun

Robert Whittaker says he would like to fight Alex Pereira if Pereira returns to light heavyweight. He made the comments to Submission Radio, and they were reported by MMA Junkie on Thursday, November 5.

The idea only comes into play if Pereira (13-4) loses to Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 335 on December 12. The Brazilian has said he won't stay at heavyweight if that happens. Nothing has been offered or booked, and the UFC has said nothing about a Whittaker fight.

What Whittaker said

Asked about Pereira coming back down, Whittaker told Submission Radio:

"It would be great. I would love to welcome him back (to light heavyweight) – it would be fun."

He added that "we would have to wait and see," because the division is "shifting" with big fights coming. He also doesn't expect Pereira to lose: "I don't know how Pavlovich beats Pereira. Pavlovich doesn't beat him by decision." In his view, Pavlovich would "have to bum-rush him and throw a big bomb of a hand."

The two have never fought, but they share a rival. Israel Adesanya beat Whittaker twice for the middleweight title, in 2019 and 2022. Pereira took that belt from Adesanya in November 2022 and lost it back in April 2023 (records: Whittaker, Pereira).

Pereira's way back

Pereira vacated the light heavyweight title in February to move up. Ciryl Gane then stopped him in the second round of his heavyweight debut on June 14, taking the interim title, ESPN reported. Gane has since been promoted to undisputed champion after Tom Aspinall vacated over eye problems, according to Cageside Press. He defends it against Josh Hokit at UFC 334 on November 14.

The UFC announced on October 3 that Pereira meets Pavlovich in the five-round co-main event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. He laid out his fallback to Connect Cast, MMA Sucka reported on October 26:

"I would go back to light heavyweight. I think that would be the ideal thing to do."

The light heavyweight belt now belongs to Carlos Ulberg, who knocked out Jiri Prochazka at UFC 327 in April. He tore his ACL in that fight and had surgery. On August 27 he said he wants to "defend my title early next year," MMA Sucka reported. Nothing is booked.

Whittaker's own fight comes first

Whittaker faces Bogdan Guskov (18-4-1) in the co-main event of UFC Sydney at Afterpay Arena, a fight announced on November 1. The UFC lists the card for February 6. Guskov is ranked No. 10 at light heavyweight and Whittaker No. 11.

It will be Whittaker's first fight in Sydney since he beat Clint Hester in November 2014. He told the MMArcade Podcast that "everyone was either tied up or had excuses" when he looked for an opponent, MMA Sucka reported.

The former middleweight champion (18-7 in the UFC) stopped Nikita Krylov in the third round of his light heavyweight debut at UFC 329 in July. That ended a two-fight skid, after losses to Khamzat Chimaev and Reinier de Ridder. He closed a -125 favourite against Krylov, per his page. The Guskov fight has no betting price yet.

What the market says

The betting market doesn't share Whittaker's confidence. On our UFC 335 page, Pavlovich is -196 and Pereira +165 at BetOnline.ag, about 64% to 36% once the bookmakers' margin is taken out. Pavlovich opened around -130, MMA Sucka reported, so the money came in on him in October.

We think the market has a point. Pereira was stopped by the first heavyweight he faced, and Pavlovich's latest win, over Tallison Teixeira in May, took 39 seconds. His two wins before that, over Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Waldo Cortes Acosta, went to decisions, per his page. Winning on the cards is well within his range, whatever Whittaker thinks.

Pereira has a good track record as a bet, though. He is 10-3 in UFC fights at closing odds, per his page. One unit on each fight would have returned 6.10 units, and he is 3-1 as the underdog, though that's history, not a read on December 12.