Paulo Costa says he'll 'fight somewhere' at year's end after hearing nothing from UFC

Paulo Costa says he has heard nothing from the UFC and will fight at an event at the end of the year, "somewhere." He wrote it in a post on X that was reported on Monday, October 12, by Heavy, BJPenn.com and others.

"Nothing from the UFC. I'm going to fight at an event at the end of the year. I'm in great shape and in my prime. I'm going to do what I love—fight somewhere."

He didn't name an event, a date or a promotion. The UFC hasn't replied publicly, and no fight is announced for him, according to our fighter page.

Costa has one fight left on his UFC deal, as he said himself in a September post quoted by Yahoo/The Big Lead. MMASucka argues that while he's under contract he can't fight for another MMA promotion, but could enter a grappling or wrestling event. That is the outlet's reading. Costa hasn't said it, and nothing official confirms it.

How it got here

Costa, 35, is 16-4 and 8-4 in the UFC. He last fought on April 11 at UFC 327, knocking out Azamat Murzakanov with a head kick at 1:23 of round 3. It was his first fight at light heavyweight since his 2021 loss to Marvin Vettori, and Murzakanov's first career loss. Costa was the underdog that night: he opened at +190 and closed at +205, per our fight page.

In July, he turned down a short-notice UFC Abu Dhabi main event against Magomed Ankalaev, as a replacement for the injured Khalil Rountree Jr. He explained why on The Ariel Helwani Show, as reported by MMASucka: it was "five rounds for the same money and not for the interim belt."

In September, he told Helwani that "they told me to wait" when he asked to fight over the summer, and that the UFC refused his request for a release, according to LowKick MMA. He also signed with Eddie Hearn's Matchroom Talent Agency. The UFC hasn't addressed the release claim in anything we read.

Costa then gave UFC executive Hunter Campbell three options on X: his last three-round fight against any opponent, a five-round light heavyweight fight within six weeks for more money, or "Release me from my contract now." Dana White answered at a press conference reported on September 23 by Heavy: "He's been offered fights and turned them down." Ankalaev claims Costa has refused him three times. Costa has publicly confirmed only the Abu Dhabi offer.

The title picture

Carlos Ulberg knocked out Jiri Prochazka for the vacant light heavyweight title on the same UFC 327 card, despite tearing his ACL in the first round. In July he said he's targeting early 2027 and opposes an interim belt. He named Costa vs Rountree as one fight to find his next challenger, per LowKick MMA.

Prochazka meets Navajo Stirling at UFC Qatar on November 21, Cageside Press reported. Ankalaev, like Costa, has no fight booked.

Our fighter page has closing odds for five of his UFC fights since 2021. Betting him at the close in those lost 0.67 units, about 13% per fight. He was the underdog in four of them and won one, against Murzakanov. That is history at closing prices, not a guide to his next fight.

What we think

In 2022 he also had one fight left and talked up boxing. He turned down a six-fight offer, then said in March 2023 he'd reached an agreement with the UFC. That standoff ended in a new deal, not an exit.

We think one more UFC fight is still likelier than a release. By Costa's own account, the UFC has already said no to letting him go, and Ankalaev keeps asking for the fight. The catch is that Costa has turned that fight down at least once. What's different from 2022 is his new management at Matchroom.

Ankalaev has already made his pitch, replying to the ultimatum in a post quoted by Yahoo/The Big Lead: "I'm your get-out-of-jail-free card. Let's fight."