Kavanagh: McGregor likely won't resume MMA training until 2027

Conor McGregor likely won't return to MMA-type training until 2027, his longtime coach John Kavanagh said on The Ariel Helwani Show on Tuesday, October 27. Uncrowned and Sherdog both reported his comments the same day.

The SBG Ireland coach said McGregor is in rehab and "moving around quite well". He gave no return date. His only nod to one was "who knows, maybe I'm back talking to you next summer."

The summer target itself isn't new. McGregor said on July 19 that "it is well within my realm to return by next summer", according to Reuters. Later that month he posted "IFW 2027 The Last Dance", and Dana White said he would likely be out about a year, MMA Sucka reported.

How the comeback ended

Max Holloway beat McGregor by TKO at 1:09 of the first round at UFC 329 on July 11. It was a welterweight main event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. McGregor hurt his knee landing his opening jumping kick, slipped again, and the fight was stopped, per UFC.com.

He confirmed a torn ACL and meniscus on July 19. He called it "the same injury as the first Holloway fight, only this time the opposite leg." He announced on Instagram in early August that he'd had surgery, Cageside Press reported.

He also asked for the result to be changed to a no contest, per Fightful. In a later post he blamed a cage floor he said was wet from dry ice, according to MMA Sucka. No change has been reported, and the TKO stands.

Kavanagh pushed back on claims that McGregor walked in hurt, per Uncrowned:

"We went in for it at 1000%, and him walking in, for the conspiracy theorists out there, no injury, zero injury."

UFC 329 was McGregor's first fight since he broke his leg against Dustin Poirier at UFC 264 in July 2021. He has now lost three straight, and his last win was a 40-second TKO of Donald Cerrone in January 2020. His UFC record is 10-5.

The market didn't rate his chances before the knee went. He closed at +240 (28%) against Holloway, who closed at -295 (72%). Across his three fights since 2021, McGregor is 0-3 at closing prices for -3.00 units, when those prices expected about 1.5 wins. That's his past record as a bet, not a forecast.

The contract and what comes next

"I think he's got one left now with the UFC, but maybe that could be the last UFC fight," Kavanagh said. The UFC hasn't said how many fights are left. Kavanagh doesn't think McGregor is finished: "If he says he [fights again], I'm not going to doubt him."

He floated McGregor's own promotion and Ki MMA as later options. McGregor co-owns BKFC, and Ki MMA is Scott Coker's new promotion, launching in 2027. Kavanagh said on the same show that he has taken an ambassador role there.

No fight is booked and there's no opponent. Before UFC 329, McGregor said, "I have a second date in April 2027," per ESPN. That now looks unlikely.

His "generational beating is now to be reset" post points at a Holloway trilogy, and MMA Sucka reports that's the fight he wants next. The UFC hasn't booked one. Kavanagh joked: "So maybe we just have to stay away from Holloway. It's bad for our knees."

We think a July 2027 return is possible but leaves little room for setbacks. If MMA training only starts in the new year, as Kavanagh expects, that leaves at most about six months to get fight-ready. After his first ACL tear against Holloway in August 2013, McGregor came back about 11 months later, in July 2014. International Fight Week 2027, which MMA Sucka expects around July 8 to 14, would be about 12 months after this injury.

He was 25 the first time, and he turns 39 in July 2027.