Adesanya vs. Shara Magomedov reportedly set to headline UFC Saudi Arabia on Dec. 5

Israel Adesanya is expected to fight Sharabutdin "Shara Bullet" Magomedov in the main event of UFC Saudi Arabia in Riyadh on Saturday, Dec. 5. Ariel Helwani reported the matchup on The Ariel Helwani Show on Thursday, Oct. 15, according to Last Word on Sports. Citing Helwani, Lindy's Sports says it will be a five-round fight.

The fight isn't official. As of Friday, the UFC had confirmed neither the matchup nor the date, Last Word on MMA noted. We found no comment from either fighter.

The date has already moved once. On Oct. 5, reporter Kevin K wrote on X that the fight was being targeted for a Saudi card on Nov. 28, NY Fights reported. Helwani's newer report moves it a week later, to Dec. 5.

Adesanya's skid

Adesanya, 37, is 24-6 and a two-time UFC middleweight champion. He is also on the first losing streak of his career, four fights long. His last win was the knockout of Alex Pereira at UFC 287 in April 2023.

Since then he has lost a decision to Sean Strickland, been submitted by Dricus du Plessis in round 4 and been stopped by Nassourdine Imavov. In March, Joe Pyfer finished him at 4:18 of round 2 at UFC Seattle. Afterward he made clear he wasn't done, ESPN reported:

"You keep going -- again and again and again and again. I'm not f---ing leaving."

In July he announced he had left City Kickboxing and coach Eugene Bareman after about 16 years. "It's bittersweet, but it's the right thing for me," he said in a video on his YouTube channel, Cageside Press reported. MMA Sucka reports he has been training with Alexander Volkanovski and Mauricio Ruffy, which we haven't seen confirmed elsewhere.

According to his CageOracle page, he closed as the favourite in all 11 of his UFC fights since 2020 and went 5-6. He was favoured in all four losses: −650 against Strickland, −116 against du Plessis, −161 against Imavov and −141 against Pyfer. A one-unit stake on him each time at the closing price would have lost 3.82 units.

Magomedov

Magomedov, 32, is 17-1 overall and 6-1 in the UFC, according to Wikipedia. He is best known for the double spinning backfist that knocked out Armen Petrosyan at UFC 308 in October 2024. This would be his first UFC main event.

His only loss came to Michael "Venom" Page by unanimous decision, on Feb. 1, 2025, in Riyadh. Adesanya headlined that same card and was stopped by Imavov 30 seconds into round 2.

Wikipedia says Magomedov is blind in one eye after a training injury. According to Lindy's Sports, most U.S. athletic commissions won't license him, so the UFC books him overseas.

He has won twice since the Page loss, over Marc-Andre Barriault and Michel Pereira. At UFC Baku in June, Pereira dropped him with a right hand and nearly finished him in round 1, Cageside Press reported. Magomedov recovered to win a unanimous decision, 29-28 on all three cards. Afterward he called out Adesanya again, Last Word on MMA reported:

"Israel Adesanya is a great matchup. He's fast. He's got a good size. He's tall."

It wasn't the first time. Yahoo Sports says he has called Adesanya out repeatedly over the last couple of years.

He closed as the favourite in all four UFC fights we have odds for, from −185 against Petrosyan to −658 against Antonio Trocoli. Backing him each time would have roughly broken even.

The title picture

Strickland holds the belt after beating Khamzat Chimaev by split decision at UFC 328 on May 9, theScore reported. Lindy's Sports has Adesanya No. 9 in the UFC rankings and Magomedov No. 15.

We think the matchup gives Adesanya a real chance to end the skid. Magomedov's only loss came against Page, a long, patient counter-striker, which is how Adesanya fights at his best. Pereira also showed in June that Magomedov can be hurt early. Against that, Adesanya has been finished in three straight fights, and Pyfer was ranked about where Magomedov is now.