Quillan Salkilld vs Benoit Saint Denis
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today.
The model picks Quillan Salkilld, 70% (about −237 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Lightweight fight over 3 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Quillan Salkilld and Benoit Saint Denis fought today, our model would make Salkilld a clear favorite at 70%, about −237 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Denis the underdog.
A year ago it would have given Salkilld 59%; today it's 70%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is a submission (44%), then a knockout (28%), then a decision (27%).
Quillan Salkilld is 6-0 in the UFC (13-1 overall); Benoit Saint Denis is 9-4 in the UFC (9-4 overall).
They have never fought each other.
Prediction breakdown
What pushes the model toward each fighter, and how many points of its number each one is worth.
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How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
How long it goes
As a three-round fight. "2.5 rounds" is halfway through round 3, 7 minutes 30 seconds of fight time; a fight that goes to the judges counts as over.
"Fair" is the American price with no bookmaker margin. The model is trained on when three-round UFC fights actually ended; it has no number for five-round fights.
The model's read over the last year
Quillan Salkilld's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.