Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today.
The model picks Petr Yan, 65% (about −188 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Bantamweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili fought today, our model would make Yan a clear favorite at 65%, about −188 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Dvalishvili the underdog.
A year ago it would have given Yan 49%; today it's 65%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is a decision (65%), then a knockout (23%), then a submission (13%).
Petr Yan is 13-4 in the UFC (21-5 overall); Merab Dvalishvili is 14-4 in the UFC (21-6 overall).
They have met before: Merab Dvalishvili won by decision, 5 rounds (Mar 11, 2023); Petr Yan won by decision, 5 rounds (Dec 6, 2025); Petr Yan won by decision, 5 rounds (Oct 24, 2026).
Prediction breakdown
What pushes the model toward each fighter, and how many points of its number each one is worth.
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How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Petr Yan's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
Mar 11, 2023 · Merab Dvalishvili won by decision, 5 rounds
Dec 6, 2025 · Petr Yan won by decision, 5 rounds
Oct 24, 2026 · Petr Yan won by decision, 5 rounds
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.