Natalia Silva vs Alexa Grasso
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today.
The model picks Natalia Silva, 65% (about −188 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Flyweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Natalia Silva and Alexa Grasso fought today, our model would make Silva a clear favorite at 65%, about −188 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Grasso the underdog.
A year ago it would have given Silva 62%; today it's 65%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is a decision (64%), then a knockout (21%), then a submission (14%).
Natalia Silva is 9-0 in the UFC (21-5 overall); Alexa Grasso is 10-5 in the UFC (18-5 overall).
They have met before: Natalia Silva won by decision, 3 rounds (May 10, 2025).
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Natalia Silva's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
May 10, 2025 · Natalia Silva won by decision, 3 rounds
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.