Joshua Van vs Lone'er Kavanagh
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today.
The model picks Joshua Van, 77% (about −334 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Flyweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Joshua Van and Lone'er Kavanagh fought today, our model would make Van a heavy favorite at 77%, about −334 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Kavanagh the underdog.
A year ago it would have given Van 71%; today it's 77%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is a decision (51%), then a knockout (39%), then a submission (10%).
Joshua Van is 11-1 in the UFC (18-2 overall); Lone'er Kavanagh is 4-2 in the UFC (11-2 overall).
They have never fought each other.
Prediction breakdown
What pushes the model toward each fighter, and how many points of its number each one is worth.
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How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Joshua Van's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.