Mackenzie Dern vs Denise Gomes
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today.
The model picks Denise Gomes, 65% (about −187 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Strawweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
- KO/TKO4%
- Submission14%
- Decision17%
- KO/TKO28%
- Submission6%
- Decision32%
The model's read
If Mackenzie Dern and Denise Gomes fought today, our model would make Gomes a clear favorite at 65%, about −187 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Dern the underdog.
A year ago it would have given Dern 39%; today it's 35%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is Gomes by decision (32%), then Gomes by KO/TKO (28%), then Dern by decision (17%).
Mackenzie Dern is 12-5 in the UFC (17-5 overall); Denise Gomes is 7-2 in the UFC (13-3 overall).
They have never fought each other.
Prediction breakdown
What pushes the model toward each fighter, and how many points of its number each one is worth.
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The model's read over the last year
Mackenzie Dern's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.