Ciryl Gane vs Alexander Volkov
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today.
The model picks Ciryl Gane, 67% (about −205 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Heavyweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov fought today, our model would make Gane a clear favorite at 67%, about −205 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Volkov the underdog.
A year ago it would have given Gane 71%; today it's 67%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is a knockout (49%), then a decision (42%), then a submission (9%).
Ciryl Gane is 11-2 in the UFC (14-2 overall); Alexander Volkov is 14-5 in the UFC (40-11 overall).
They have met before: Ciryl Gane won by decision, 5 rounds (Jun 26, 2021); Ciryl Gane won by decision, 3 rounds (Dec 7, 2024).
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Ciryl Gane's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
Jun 26, 2021 · Ciryl Gane won by decision, 5 rounds
Dec 7, 2024 · Ciryl Gane won by decision, 3 rounds
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.