Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today.
The model picks Carlos Ulberg, 57% (about −132 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Light Heavyweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes fought today, our model would make Ulberg a narrow favorite at 57%, about −132 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Reyes the underdog.
A year ago it would have given Ulberg 60%; today it's 57%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is a knockout (80%), then a decision (16%), then a submission (4%).
Carlos Ulberg is 10-1 in the UFC (14-1 overall); Dominick Reyes is 11-5 in the UFC (17-5 overall).
They have met before: Carlos Ulberg won by KO/TKO, round 1 (4:27) (Sep 27, 2025).
Prediction breakdown
What pushes the model toward each fighter, and how many points of its number each one is worth.
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How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Carlos Ulberg's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
Sep 27, 2025 · Carlos Ulberg won by KO/TKO, round 1 (4:27)
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.