Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today.
The model picks Movsar Evloev, 64% (about −175 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Featherweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Alexander Volkanovski and Movsar Evloev fought today, our model would make Evloev a clear favorite at 64%, about −175 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Volkanovski the underdog.
Its read has barely moved over the last year: Volkanovski was at 38% and is at 36% now.
The most likely ending is a decision (55%), then a knockout (31%), then a submission (14%).
Alexander Volkanovski is 16-3 in the UFC (29-4 overall); Movsar Evloev is 10-1 in the UFC (20-1 overall).
They have met before: Alexander Volkanovski won by KO/TKO, round 2 (4:54) (Oct 24, 2026).
Prediction breakdown
What pushes the model toward each fighter, and how many points of its number each one is worth.
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How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Alexander Volkanovski's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
Oct 24, 2026 · Alexander Volkanovski won by KO/TKO, round 2 (4:54)
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.