A quarter of UFC fights are over in the first round, and winning it makes you a 2-to-1 favorite. But a close first round barely predicts anything — and the knockdown that doesn’t finish can fool you.
Market studyWe compared the opening and closing line on 2,000 UFC fights. The close is smarter — but the open has tells of its own: it hugs the middle, underprices favorites, and expects to be rewritten.
Data studyEvery pre-fight breakdown cites reach. Across 6,600 UFC bouts, a small reach edge is worth almost nothing — here’s when it actually starts to matter.
Data studyWe mapped how UFC fighters age across 17,000 fights. The decline starts earlier than most fans think — and the first thing to slip isn’t speed or output.
Market studyWe checked 4,500 UFC fights against the closing line. Almost no fighter is reliably mispriced — but the market does have one consistent blind spot.