← Back to past events2026-08-29T07:00Z
Moneyline2 Round totals5
Our picks 2/2 correct · +1.28u on 2 bets
Model lean: Liu Ce 67%
Model win probability: 67% / 33%
Market odds: -167 / 142
Predicted method: KO/TKO
Result: Liu Ce won by KO/TKO
The model favored Liu Ce at 67%. Liu Ce won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Our pick: Sean Woodson ✓ Hit
Model lean: Sean Woodson 60%
Model win probability: 40% / 60%
Market odds: 120 / -147
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Sean Woodson won by Decision - Split
The model favored Sean Woodson at 60%. Sean Woodson won by Decision - Split — the model had it right.
Rest of the card 11 fights the strategies passed on Main Card
Model lean: Umar Nurmagomedov 82%
Model win probability: 82% / 18%
Market odds: -667 / 440
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Song Yadong won by KO/TKO
The model favored Umar Nurmagomedov at 82%. Song Yadong won by KO/TKO — the model missed this one.
Model lean: Yan Xiaonan 53%
Model win probability: 53% / 47%
Market odds: -147 / 121
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Denise Gomes won by KO/TKO
The model favored Yan Xiaonan at 53%. Denise Gomes won by KO/TKO — the model missed this one.
Model lean: Kai Asakura 60%
Model win probability: 40% / 60%
Market odds: 335 / -455
Predicted method: KO/TKO
Result: Kai Asakura won by KO/TKO
The model favored Kai Asakura at 60%. Kai Asakura won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Model lean: Sumudaerji 50%
Model win probability: 50% / 50%
Market odds: 170 / -227
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Sumudaerji won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Sumudaerji at 50%. Sumudaerji won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Model lean: Bilal Hasan 87%
Model win probability: 87% / 13%
Market odds: -769 / 550
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Bilal Hasan won by KO/TKO
The model favored Bilal Hasan at 87%. Bilal Hasan won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Prelims
Model lean: Andre Lima 75%
Model win probability: 25% / 75%
Market odds: 220 / -270
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Andre Lima won by Submission
The model favored Andre Lima at 75%. Andre Lima won by Submission — the model had it right.
Model lean: Rei Tsuruya 89%
Model win probability: 89% / 11%
Market odds: -833 / 550
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Rei Tsuruya won by Submission
The model favored Rei Tsuruya at 89%. Rei Tsuruya won by Submission — the model had it right.
Model lean: not yet scored
Model win probability: — / —
Market odds: — / —
Predicted method: —
Result: Francesco Nuzzi won by KO/TKO
The model never scored this matchup. Francesco Nuzzi won by KO/TKO.
Model lean: not yet scored
Model win probability: — / —
Market odds: — / —
Predicted method: —
Result: Hector Santiago won by KO/TKO
The model never scored this matchup. Hector Santiago won by KO/TKO.
Model lean: Julia Polastri 64%
Model win probability: 36% / 64%
Market odds: 190 / -233
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Julia Polastri won by KO/TKO
The model favored Julia Polastri at 64%. Julia Polastri won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Model lean: not yet scored
Model win probability: — / —
Market odds: — / —
Predicted method: —
Result: Cam Nelson won by Decision - Unanimous
The model never scored this matchup. Cam Nelson won by Decision - Unanimous.
Only the picks above were backed. Every other fight on this card is listed for the record with the model’s read on it, but the strategies declined it — a model lean is not a recommendation, and nothing below the picks section was bet.
Our round total picks 2/5 correct · +24.6% return on 5 bets
Our pick: Over 2.5 ✗ Miss
Model P(over 2.5): 51%
Market P(over 2.5): 41%
Edge: +10.3 pts
Closing price: +130
(over, median of 1 book)
Rules: redge10
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R2 2:28)
Model P(over 2.5): 60%
Market P(over 2.5): 45%
Edge: +15.6 pts
Closing price: +114
(over, median of 5 books)
Rules: redge10
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 3:03)
Our pick: Over 2.5 ✗ Miss
Model P(over 2.5): 58%
Market P(over 2.5): 42%
Edge: +16.2 pts
Closing price: +128
(over, median of 4 books)
Rules: redge10
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 4:14)
Our pick: Under 2.5 ✗ Miss
Model P(over 2.5): 55%
Market P(over 2.5): 62%
Edge: -7.3 pts
Closing price: +150
(under, median of 5 books)
Rules: ragree5
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Our pick: Under 2.5 ✓ Hit
Model P(over 2.5): 71%
Market P(over 2.5): 77%
Edge: -5.5 pts
Closing price: +309
(under, median of 5 books)
Rules: ragree5
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 3:06)
Other lines priced 5 lines the rules passed on
Model P(over 2.5): 73%
Market P(over 2.5): 71%
Edge: +1.8 pts
Closing price: −294
(over, median of 5 books)
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 4:49)
Model P(over 1.5): 40%
Market P(over 1.5): 36%
Edge: +4.6 pts
Closing price: +170
(over, median of 5 books)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 4:26)
Model P(over 1.5): 68%
Market P(over 1.5): 58%
Edge: +10.4 pts
Closing price: −149
(over, median of 5 books)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R2 2:28)
Model P(over 1.5): 69%
Market P(over 1.5): 58%
Edge: +10.7 pts
Closing price: −164
(over, median of 1 book)
Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 3:03)
Model P(over 1.5): 74%
Market P(over 1.5): 54%
Edge: +19.8 pts
Closing price: −135
(over, median of 1 book)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 4:14)
A round total pick is a side AND a line: the same fight can be picked at 2.5 and passed at 1.5, and the two settle separately. Only the picks above were backed.