UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez Predictions & Odds

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2026-08-01T14:00Z

Our picks 6/8 correct · -0.24u on 8 bets

Jan Blachowicz vs Navajo Stirling

Our pick: Navajo Stirling ✓ Hit

Model lean: Navajo Stirling 82%

Model win probability: 18% / 82%

Market odds: 260 / -323

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Navajo Stirling won by KO/TKO

The model favored Navajo Stirling at 82%. Navajo Stirling won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.

Dusko Todorovic vs Robert Valentin

Our pick: Dusko Todorovic ✗ Miss

Model lean: Robert Valentin 56%

Model win probability: 44% / 56%

Market odds: 133 / -160

Predicted method: Submission

Result: Robert Valentin won by Submission

The model favored Robert Valentin at 56%. Robert Valentin won by Submission — the model had it right.

Milos Janicic vs Noah Gugnon

Our pick: Milos Janicic ✗ Miss

Model lean: Milos Janicic 52%

Model win probability: 52% / 48%

Market odds: -132 / 112

Predicted method: Submission

Result: Noah Gugnon won by Submission

The model favored Milos Janicic at 52%. Noah Gugnon won by Submission — the model missed this one.

Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad

Our pick: Bogdan Grad ✓ Hit

Model lean: Bogdan Grad 63%

Model win probability: 37% / 63%

Market odds: 168 / -198

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Bogdan Grad won by Submission

The model favored Bogdan Grad at 63%. Bogdan Grad won by Submission — the model had it right.

Mateusz Rebecki vs Kyle Prepolec

Our pick: Mateusz Rebecki ✓ Hit

Model lean: Mateusz Rebecki 81%

Model win probability: 81% / 19%

Market odds: -870 / 588

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Mateusz Rebecki won by KO/TKO

The model favored Mateusz Rebecki at 81%. Mateusz Rebecki won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.

Nina Milosevic vs Hailey Cowan

Our pick: Nina Milosevic ✓ Hit

Model lean: Nina Milosevic 75%

Model win probability: 75% / 25%

Market odds: -526 / 400

Predicted method: Submission

Result: Nina Milosevic won by KO/TKO

The model favored Nina Milosevic at 75%. Nina Milosevic won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.

Jovan Leka vs Alexander Poppeck

Our pick: Jovan Leka ✓ Hit

Model lean: Jovan Leka 66%

Model win probability: 66% / 34%

Market odds: -294 / 240

Predicted method: Submission

Result: Jovan Leka won by KO/TKO

The model favored Jovan Leka at 66%. Jovan Leka won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.

Marina Spasic vs Stephanie Luciano

Our pick: Stephanie Luciano ✓ Hit

Model lean: Stephanie Luciano 63%

Model win probability: 37% / 63%

Market odds: 267 / -333

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Stephanie Luciano won by Submission

The model favored Stephanie Luciano at 63%. Stephanie Luciano won by Submission — the model had it right.

Rest of the card 6 fights the strategies passed on

Main Card

Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez

Not picked

Model lean: Uros Medic 80%

Model win probability: 80% / 20%

Market odds: -400 / 310

Predicted method: KO/TKO

Result: Uros Medic won by KO/TKO

The model favored Uros Medic at 80%. Uros Medic won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.

Aleksandar Rakic vs Marcin Tybura

Not picked

Model lean: Aleksandar Rakic 76%

Model win probability: 76% / 24%

Market odds: -392 / 310

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Aleksandar Rakic won by Decision - Unanimous

The model favored Aleksandar Rakic at 76%. Aleksandar Rakic won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.

Vlasto Cepo vs Gilbert Urbina

Not picked

Model lean: Vlasto Cepo 70%

Model win probability: 70% / 30%

Market odds: -328 / 260

Predicted method: Submission

Result: Gilbert Urbina won by KO/TKO

The model favored Vlasto Cepo at 70%. Gilbert Urbina won by KO/TKO — the model missed this one.

Prelims

Ludovit Klein vs Tofiq Musayev

No pick on record

Model lean: no verified read

Model win probability: — / —

Market odds: — / —

Predicted method: Submission

Result: Tofiq Musayev won by KO/TKO

The model has no verified read on this matchup. Tofiq Musayev won by KO/TKO.

Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira

Not picked

Model lean: Michael Oliveira 74%

Model win probability: 26% / 74%

Market odds: 304 / -377

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Michael Oliveira won by KO/TKO

The model favored Michael Oliveira at 74%. Michael Oliveira won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.

Borislav Nikolic vs Mark Vologdin

Not picked

Model lean: Mark Vologdin 62%

Model win probability: 38% / 62%

Market odds: -204 / 170

Predicted method: KO/TKO

Result: Borislav Nikolic won by Decision - Unanimous

The model favored Mark Vologdin at 62%. Borislav Nikolic won by Decision - Unanimous — the model missed this one.

Only the picks above were backed. Every other fight on this card is listed for the record with the model’s read on it, but the strategies declined it — a model lean is not a recommendation, and nothing below the picks section was bet.

Our round total picks 1/3 correct · -41.0% return on 3 bets

Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad o/u 2.5

Our pick: Over 2.5 ✗ Miss

Model P(over 2.5): 64%

Market P(over 2.5): 56%

Edge: +8.0 pts

Closing price: −141 (over, median of 5 books)

Rules: ragree5

Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R2 4:33)

Mateusz Rebecki vs Kyle Prepolec o/u 2.5

Our pick: Over 2.5 ✗ Miss

Model P(over 2.5): 63%

Market P(over 2.5): 42%

Edge: +21.8 pts

Closing price: +125 (over, median of 1 book)

Rules: redge10

Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 4:41)

Jovan Leka vs Alexander Poppeck o/u 2.5

Our pick: Under 2.5 ✓ Hit

Model P(over 2.5): 32%

Market P(over 2.5): 47%

Edge: -14.8 pts

Closing price: −130 (under, median of 1 book)

Rules: redge10

Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 2:22)

Other lines priced 15 lines the rules passed on

Jan Blachowicz vs Navajo Stirling o/u 2.5

not picked

Model P(over 2.5): 64%

Market P(over 2.5): 64%

Edge: +0.5 pts

Closing price: −208 (over, median of 5 books)

Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 2:56)

Aleksandar Rakic vs Marcin Tybura o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 70%

Market P(over 1.5): 65%

Edge: +5.1 pts

Closing price: −208 (over, median of 4 books)

Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 5:00)

Aleksandar Rakic vs Marcin Tybura o/u 2.5

not picked

Model P(over 2.5): 53%

Market P(over 2.5): 48%

Edge: +5.3 pts

Closing price: −105 (over, median of 1 book)

Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)

Dusko Todorovic vs Robert Valentin o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 37%

Market P(over 1.5): 50%

Edge: -12.8 pts

Closing price: −115 (over, median of 5 books)

Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 4:14)

Vlasto Cepo vs Gilbert Urbina o/u 0.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 0.5): —

Market P(over 0.5): 69%

Edge: —

Closing price: −278 (over, median of 1 book)

Result: not graded

Vlasto Cepo vs Gilbert Urbina o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 49%

Market P(over 1.5): 31%

Edge: +18.5 pts

Closing price: +205 (over, median of 4 books)

Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 1:01)

Milos Janicic vs Noah Gugnon o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 60%

Market P(over 1.5): 57%

Edge: +3.4 pts

Closing price: −145 (over, median of 5 books)

Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 1:21)

Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 65%

Market P(over 1.5): 62%

Edge: +2.6 pts

Closing price: −183 (over, median of 4 books)

Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 1:49)

Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira o/u 2.5

not picked

Model P(over 2.5): 53%

Market P(over 2.5): 44%

Edge: +9.3 pts

Closing price: +115 (over, median of 1 book)

Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 1:49)

Borislav Nikolic vs Mark Vologdin o/u 2.5

not picked

Model P(over 2.5): 58%

Market P(over 2.5): 53%

Edge: +4.5 pts

Closing price: −130 (over, median of 5 books)

Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)

Mateusz Rebecki vs Kyle Prepolec o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 73%

Market P(over 1.5): 59%

Edge: +14.4 pts

Closing price: −161 (over, median of 4 books)

Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 4:41)

Nina Milosevic vs Hailey Cowan o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 72%

Market P(over 1.5): 67%

Edge: +4.4 pts

Closing price: −244 (over, median of 4 books)

Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 3:41)

Nina Milosevic vs Hailey Cowan o/u 2.5

not picked

Model P(over 2.5): 58%

Market P(over 2.5): 53%

Edge: +5.4 pts

Closing price: −130 (over, median of 1 book)

Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 3:41)

Jovan Leka vs Alexander Poppeck o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 49%

Market P(over 1.5): 64%

Edge: -14.9 pts

Closing price: −204 (over, median of 4 books)

Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 2:22)

Marina Spasic vs Stephanie Luciano o/u 2.5

not picked

Model P(over 2.5): 69%

Market P(over 2.5): 70%

Edge: -0.7 pts

Closing price: −278 (over, median of 5 books)

Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 3:20)

A round total pick is a side AND a line: the same fight can be picked at 2.5 and passed at 1.5, and the two settle separately. Only the picks above were backed.