UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse Predictions & Odds

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2026-09-05T16:00Z

Our picks 2/5 correct · -1.83u on 4 bets

Fares Ziam vs Axel Sola

Our pick: Fares Ziam ✗ Miss

Model lean: Fares Ziam 60%

Model win probability: 60% / 40%

Market odds: -155 / 130

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Axel Sola won by KO/TKO

The model favored Fares Ziam at 60%. Axel Sola won by KO/TKO — the model missed this one.

Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano

Our pick: Daniil Donchenko ✓ Hit

Model lean: Daniil Donchenko 94%

Model win probability: 94% / 6%

Market odds: -3333 / 950

Predicted method: KO/TKO

Result: Daniil Donchenko won by Decision - Unanimous

The model favored Daniil Donchenko at 94%. Daniil Donchenko won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.

Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann

Our pick: Mario Pinto ✓ Hit

Model lean: Mario Pinto 84%

Model win probability: 84% / 16%

Market odds: -714 / 440

Predicted method: KO/TKO

Result: Mario Pinto won by KO/TKO

The model favored Mario Pinto at 84%. Mario Pinto won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.

Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas

Our pick: Oumar Sy ✗ Miss

Model lean: Oumar Sy 77%

Model win probability: 77% / 23%

Market odds: -238 / 198

Predicted method: KO/TKO

Result: Modestas Bukauskas won by KO/TKO

The model favored Oumar Sy at 77%. Modestas Bukauskas won by KO/TKO — the model missed this one.

Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro

Our pick: Sofia Montenegro ✗ Miss

Model lean: not yet scored

Model win probability: — / —

Market odds: — / —

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Delphine Benouaich won by Submission

The model never scored this matchup. Delphine Benouaich won by Submission.

Rest of the card 9 fights the strategies passed on

Main Card

Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse

Not picked

Model lean: not yet scored

Model win probability: — / —

Market odds: — / —

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Salahdine Parnasse won by KO/TKO

The model never scored this matchup. Salahdine Parnasse won by KO/TKO.

Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev

Not picked

Model lean: not yet scored

Model win probability: — / —

Market odds: — / —

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Michael Page won by Decision - Unanimous

The model never scored this matchup. Michael Page won by Decision - Unanimous.

Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek

Not picked

Model lean: Kurtis Campbell 96%

Model win probability: 96% / 4%

Market odds: -10000 / 1425

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Kurtis Campbell won by Submission

The model favored Kurtis Campbell at 96%. Kurtis Campbell won by Submission — the model had it right.

Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov

Not picked

Model lean: not yet scored

Model win probability: — / —

Market odds: — / —

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Losene Keita won by KO/TKO

The model never scored this matchup. Losene Keita won by KO/TKO.

Prelims

Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima

Not picked

Model lean: not yet scored

Model win probability: — / —

Market odds: — / —

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Felipe Lima won by Decision - Unanimous

The model never scored this matchup. Felipe Lima won by Decision - Unanimous.

Nathaniel Wood vs Pavel Andrusca

Not picked

Model lean: not yet scored

Model win probability: — / —

Market odds: — / —

Predicted method: —

Result: Pavel Andrusca won by Decision - Unanimous

The model never scored this matchup. Pavel Andrusca won by Decision - Unanimous.

Michael Aljarouj vs Fabia Sintes

Not picked

Model lean: not yet scored

Model win probability: — / —

Market odds: — / —

Predicted method: —

Result: Fabia Sintes won by Decision - Unanimous

The model never scored this matchup. Fabia Sintes won by Decision - Unanimous.

Nora Cornolle vs Klaudia Sygula

Not picked

Model lean: not yet scored

Model win probability: — / —

Market odds: — / —

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Nora Cornolle won by Decision - Unanimous

The model never scored this matchup. Nora Cornolle won by Decision - Unanimous.

Matthieu Duclos vs Luis Felipe Dias

Not picked

Model lean: Luis Felipe Dias 53%

Model win probability: 47% / 53%

Market odds: -115 / -105

Predicted method: KO/TKO

Result: Matthieu Duclos won by KO/TKO

The model favored Luis Felipe Dias at 53%. Matthieu Duclos won by KO/TKO — the model missed this one.

Only the picks above were backed. Every other fight on this card is listed for the record with the model’s read on it, but the strategies declined it — a model lean is not a recommendation, and nothing below the picks section was bet.

Our round total picks 3/3 correct · +138.3% return on 3 bets

Fares Ziam vs Axel Sola o/u 2.5

Our pick: Under 2.5 ✓ Hit

Model P(over 2.5): 57%

Market P(over 2.5): 66%

Edge: -9.2 pts

Closing price: +180 (under, median of 5 books)

Rules: ragree5

Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 1:40)

Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek o/u 2.5

Our pick: Over 2.5 ✓ Hit

Model P(over 2.5): 59%

Market P(over 2.5): 43%

Edge: +16.0 pts

Closing price: +120 (over, median of 1 book)

Rules: redge10

Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 3:07)

Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas o/u 2.5

Our pick: Under 2.5 ✓ Hit

Model P(over 2.5): 48%

Market P(over 2.5): 56%

Edge: -8.4 pts

Closing price: +115 (under, median of 5 books)

Rules: ragree5

Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R2 3:57)

Other lines priced 7 lines the rules passed on

Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 64%

Market P(over 1.5): 62%

Edge: +2.5 pts

Closing price: −182 (over, median of 4 books)

Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 5:00)

Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano o/u 2.5

not picked

Model P(over 2.5): 48%

Market P(over 2.5): 41%

Edge: +7.5 pts

Closing price: +130 (over, median of 1 book)

Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)

Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 68%

Market P(over 1.5): 60%

Edge: +8.0 pts

Closing price: −172 (over, median of 4 books)

Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 3:07)

Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima o/u 2.5

not picked

Model P(over 2.5): 63%

Market P(over 2.5): 64%

Edge: -0.6 pts

Closing price: −200 (over, median of 1 book)

Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)

Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 49%

Market P(over 1.5): 47%

Edge: +2.3 pts

Closing price: +106 (over, median of 2 books)

Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R2 0:55)

Matthieu Duclos vs Luis Felipe Dias o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 46%

Market P(over 1.5): 45%

Edge: +1.0 pts

Closing price: +110 (over, median of 4 books)

Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 4:35)

Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro o/u 2.5

not picked

Model P(over 2.5): 63%

Market P(over 2.5): 67%

Edge: -4.5 pts

Closing price: −233 (over, median of 1 book)

Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R2 4:22)

A round total pick is a side AND a line: the same fight can be picked at 2.5 and passed at 1.5, and the two settle separately. Only the picks above were backed.