← Back to past events2026-08-22T21:00Z
Moneyline Round totals6
Full card 13 fights Main Card
Model lean: Anthony Hernandez 66%
Model win probability: 66% / 34%
Market odds: 2600 / -20000
Predicted method: KO/TKO
Result: Gregory Rodrigues won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Anthony Hernandez at 66%. Gregory Rodrigues won by Decision - Unanimous — the model missed this one.
Model lean: Vitor Petrino 53%
Model win probability: 47% / 53%
Market odds: — / —
Predicted method: KO/TKO
Result: Vitor Petrino won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Vitor Petrino at 53%. Vitor Petrino won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Model lean: Reinier de Ridder 94%
Model win probability: 94% / 6%
Market odds: -3333 / 1150
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Reinier de Ridder won by KO/TKO
The model favored Reinier de Ridder at 94%. Reinier de Ridder won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Model lean: Mason Jones 68%
Model win probability: 32% / 68%
Market odds: 375 / -625
Predicted method: Decision
Result: MarQuel Mederos won by KO/TKO
The model favored Mason Jones at 68%. MarQuel Mederos won by KO/TKO — the model missed this one.
Model lean: Carli Judice 79%
Model win probability: 79% / 21%
Market odds: -714 / 500
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Carli Judice won by KO/TKO
The model favored Carli Judice at 79%. Carli Judice won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Model lean: Anthony Wint 89%
Model win probability: 89% / 11%
Market odds: -1000 / 650
Predicted method: KO/TKO
Result: Anthony Wint won by Submission
The model favored Anthony Wint at 89%. Anthony Wint won by Submission — the model had it right.
Prelims
Model lean: Lerryan Douglas 79%
Model win probability: 21% / 79%
Market odds: 310 / -400
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Jamall Emmers won by KO/TKO
The model favored Lerryan Douglas at 79%. Jamall Emmers won by KO/TKO — the model missed this one.
Model lean: Shamil Gaziev 54%
Model win probability: 46% / 54%
Market odds: 102 / -137
Predicted method: KO/TKO
Result: Shamil Gaziev won by KO/TKO
The model favored Shamil Gaziev at 54%. Shamil Gaziev won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Model lean: Nasrat Haqparast 52%
Model win probability: 48% / 52%
Market odds: -10000 / 1150
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Chris Padilla won by Submission
The model favored Nasrat Haqparast at 52%. Chris Padilla won by Submission — the model missed this one.
Model lean: Marcio Barbosa 70%
Model win probability: 70% / 30%
Market odds: -1000 / 630
Predicted method: KO/TKO
Result: Marcio Barbosa won by KO/TKO
The model favored Marcio Barbosa at 70%. Marcio Barbosa won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Model lean: Gauge Young 73%
Model win probability: 73% / 27%
Market odds: 220 / -294
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Stan Dorsainvil won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Gauge Young at 73%. Stan Dorsainvil won by Decision - Unanimous — the model missed this one.
Model lean: Jackson McVey 56%
Model win probability: 44% / 56%
Market odds: 290 / -435
Predicted method: Submission
Result: Jackson McVey won by KO/TKO
The model favored Jackson McVey at 56%. Jackson McVey won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Model lean: Shanelle Dyer 80%
Model win probability: 80% / 20%
Market odds: -20000 / 2800
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Shanelle Dyer won by KO/TKO
The model favored Shanelle Dyer at 80%. Shanelle Dyer won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Our round total picks 0/6 correct · -100.0% return on 6 bets
Our pick: Over 2.5 ✗ Miss
Model P(over 2.5): 66%
Market P(over 2.5): 55%
Edge: +11.1 pts
Closing price: −135
(over, median of 5 books)
Rules: redge10, ragree5
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 4:01)
Our pick: Over 2.5 ✗ Miss
Model P(over 2.5): 66%
Market P(over 2.5): 64%
Edge: +2.4 pts
Closing price: −200
(over, median of 5 books)
Rules: ragree5
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R2 2:07)
Our pick: Over 2.5 ✗ Miss
Model P(over 2.5): 65%
Market P(over 2.5): 58%
Edge: +6.8 pts
Closing price: −161
(over, median of 5 books)
Rules: ragree5
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 1:39)
Our pick: Under 2.5 ✗ Miss
Model P(over 2.5): 60%
Market P(over 2.5): 63%
Edge: -2.6 pts
Closing price: +155
(under, median of 5 books)
Rules: ragree5
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 4:59)
Our pick: Under 2.5 ✗ Miss
Model P(over 2.5): 47%
Market P(over 2.5): 59%
Edge: -12.4 pts
Closing price: +135
(under, median of 5 books)
Rules: redge10
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Our pick: Over 2.5 ✗ Miss
Model P(over 2.5): 65%
Market P(over 2.5): 48%
Edge: +16.4 pts
Closing price: −105
(over, median of 4 books)
Rules: redge10
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R3 1:42)
Other lines priced 8 lines the rules passed on
Model P(over 0.5): —
Market P(over 0.5): 65%
Edge: —
Closing price: −222
(over, median of 1 book)
Model P(over 1.5): 50%
Market P(over 1.5): 36%
Edge: +14.6 pts
Closing price: +167
(over, median of 4 books)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 4:29)
Model P(over 1.5): 65%
Market P(over 1.5): 46%
Edge: +19.1 pts
Closing price: +110
(over, median of 5 books)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 3:38)
Model P(over 1.5): 69%
Market P(over 1.5): 52%
Edge: +16.5 pts
Closing price: −120
(over, median of 5 books)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 1:20)
Model P(over 0.5): —
Market P(over 0.5): 65%
Edge: —
Closing price: −222
(over, median of 1 book)
Model P(over 1.5): 56%
Market P(over 1.5): 34%
Edge: +21.9 pts
Closing price: +182
(over, median of 4 books)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 2:47)
Model P(over 1.5): 37%
Market P(over 1.5): 35%
Edge: +1.4 pts
Closing price: +165
(over, median of 5 books)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 4:13)
Model P(over 1.5): 73%
Market P(over 1.5): 57%
Edge: +15.4 pts
Closing price: −154
(over, median of 1 book)
Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 1:42)
A round total pick is a side AND a line: the same fight can be picked at 2.5 and passed at 1.5, and the two settle separately. Only the picks above were backed.