← Back to past events2026-08-08T21:00Z
Moneyline8 Round totals4
Our picks 8/8 correct · +3.67u on 8 bets
Our pick: Quillan Salkilld ✓ Hit
Model lean: Quillan Salkilld 57%
Model win probability: 43% / 57%
Market odds: 125 / -148
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Quillan Salkilld won by Submission
The model favored Quillan Salkilld at 57%. Quillan Salkilld won by Submission — the model had it right.
Our pick: Diego Ferreira ✓ Hit
Model lean: Diego Ferreira 65%
Model win probability: 65% / 35%
Market odds: -175 / 145
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Diego Ferreira won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Diego Ferreira at 65%. Diego Ferreira won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Our pick: Alexia Thainara ✓ Hit
Model lean: Alexia Thainara 79%
Model win probability: 21% / 79%
Market odds: 240 / -294
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Alexia Thainara won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Alexia Thainara at 79%. Alexia Thainara won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Our pick: Ty Miller ✓ Hit
Model lean: Ty Miller 84%
Model win probability: 16% / 84%
Market odds: 349 / -455
Predicted method: KO/TKO
Result: Ty Miller won by KO/TKO
The model favored Ty Miller at 84%. Ty Miller won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Our pick: Diyar Nurgozhay ✓ Hit
Model lean: Diyar Nurgozhay 68%
Model win probability: 68% / 32%
Market odds: -156 / 134
Predicted method: KO/TKO
Result: Diyar Nurgozhay won by KO/TKO
The model favored Diyar Nurgozhay at 68%. Diyar Nurgozhay won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Our pick: Manoel Sousa ✓ Hit
Model lean: Manoel Sousa 78%
Model win probability: 78% / 22%
Market odds: -345 / 268
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Manoel Sousa won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Manoel Sousa at 78%. Manoel Sousa won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Our pick: Miles Johns ✓ Hit
Model lean: Miles Johns 59%
Model win probability: 59% / 41%
Market odds: -204 / 170
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Miles Johns won by KO/TKO
The model favored Miles Johns at 59%. Miles Johns won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Our pick: Carol Foro ✓ Hit
Model lean: Gigi Canuto 55%
Model win probability: 55% / 45%
Market odds: 185 / -225
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Carol Foro won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Gigi Canuto at 55%. Carol Foro won by Decision - Unanimous — the model missed this one.
Rest of the card 4 fights the strategies passed on Main Card
Model lean: Yadier del Valle 73%
Model win probability: 27% / 73%
Market odds: — / —
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Yadier del Valle won by KO/TKO
The model favored Yadier del Valle at 73%. Yadier del Valle won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Prelims
Model lean: Steven Asplund 74%
Model win probability: 74% / 26%
Market odds: -323 / 254
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Steven Asplund won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Steven Asplund at 74%. Steven Asplund won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Model lean: no verified read
Model win probability: — / —
Market odds: -154 / 130
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Jose Montanha won by Submission
The model has no verified read on this matchup. Jose Montanha won by Submission.
Model lean: Juliana Miller 77%
Model win probability: 77% / 23%
Market odds: -345 / 274
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Juliana Miller won by Submission
The model favored Juliana Miller at 77%. Juliana Miller won by Submission — the model had it right.
Only the picks above were backed. Every other fight on this card is listed for the record with the model’s read on it, but the strategies declined it — a model lean is not a recommendation, and nothing below the picks section was bet.
Our round total picks 3/4 correct · +74.5% return on 4 bets
Model P(over 2.5): 60%
Market P(over 2.5): 50%
Edge: +10.3 pts
Closing price: −115
(over, median of 1 book)
Rules: redge10
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Our pick: Under 2.5 ✓ Hit
Model P(over 2.5): 52%
Market P(over 2.5): 63%
Edge: -10.7 pts
Closing price: +155
(under, median of 4 books)
Rules: redge10
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 3:09)
Our pick: Over 2.5 ✗ Miss
Model P(over 2.5): 57%
Market P(over 2.5): 48%
Edge: +9.0 pts
Closing price: +100
(over, median of 4 books)
Rules: ragree5
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R2 1:38)
Model P(over 2.5): 54%
Market P(over 2.5): 37%
Edge: +16.4 pts
Closing price: +156
(over, median of 4 books)
Rules: redge10, ragree5
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Other lines priced 10 lines the rules passed on
Model P(over 1.5): 67%
Market P(over 1.5): 55%
Edge: +11.2 pts
Closing price: −145
(over, median of 1 book)
Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Model P(over 2.5): 47%
Market P(over 2.5): 44%
Edge: +3.0 pts
Closing price: +115
(over, median of 5 books)
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Model P(over 2.5): 67%
Market P(over 2.5): 65%
Edge: +2.2 pts
Closing price: −222
(over, median of 5 books)
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Model P(over 1.5): 53%
Market P(over 1.5): 61%
Edge: -7.7 pts
Closing price: −177
(over, median of 4 books)
Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 0:15)
Model P(over 2.5): 42%
Market P(over 2.5): 46%
Edge: -3.7 pts
Closing price: +105
(over, median of 1 book)
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R3 0:15)
Model P(over 1.5): 71%
Market P(over 1.5): 59%
Edge: +12.3 pts
Closing price: −161
(over, median of 4 books)
Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Model P(over 1.5): 58%
Market P(over 1.5): 54%
Edge: +4.5 pts
Closing price: −127
(over, median of 5 books)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 4:59)
Model P(over 1.5): 73%
Market P(over 1.5): 68%
Edge: +4.7 pts
Closing price: −244
(over, median of 4 books)
Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Model P(over 2.5): 60%
Market P(over 2.5): 51%
Edge: +8.7 pts
Closing price: −120
(over, median of 1 book)
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Model P(over 1.5): 66%
Market P(over 1.5): 54%
Edge: +11.5 pts
Closing price: −135
(over, median of 1 book)
Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 5:00)
A round total pick is a side AND a line: the same fight can be picked at 2.5 and passed at 1.5, and the two settle separately. Only the picks above were backed.