← Back to past events2026-07-18T21:00Z
Moneyline7 Round totals2
Our picks 7/7 correct · +2.72u on 7 bets
Our pick: Christian Leroy Duncan ✓ Hit
Model lean: Christian Leroy Duncan 79%
Model win probability: 21% / 79%
Market odds: 290 / -385
Predicted method: —
Result: Christian Leroy Duncan won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Christian Leroy Duncan at 79%. Christian Leroy Duncan won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Our pick: Chase Hooper ✓ Hit
Model lean: Chase Hooper 78%
Model win probability: 78% / 22%
Market odds: -375 / 285
Predicted method: —
Result: Chase Hooper won by Submission
The model favored Chase Hooper at 78%. Chase Hooper won by Submission — the model had it right.
Our pick: Fatima Kline ✓ Hit
Model lean: Fatima Kline 82%
Model win probability: 18% / 82%
Market odds: 370 / -500
Predicted method: —
Result: Fatima Kline won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Fatima Kline at 82%. Fatima Kline won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Our pick: Tommy McMillen ✓ Hit
Model lean: Tommy McMillen 61%
Model win probability: 61% / 39%
Market odds: -195 / 155
Predicted method: —
Result: Tommy McMillen won by KO/TKO
The model favored Tommy McMillen at 61%. Tommy McMillen won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Our pick: Felipe Franco ✓ Hit
Model lean: Levi Rodrigues Jr. 56%
Model win probability: 56% / 44%
Market odds: -152 / 123
Predicted method: —
Result: Felipe Franco won by KO/TKO
The model favored Levi Rodrigues Jr. at 56%. Felipe Franco won by KO/TKO — the model missed this one.
Our pick: Alden Coria ✓ Hit
Model lean: Alden Coria 91%
Model win probability: 91% / 9%
Market odds: -1000 / 700
Predicted method: —
Result: Alden Coria won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Alden Coria at 91%. Alden Coria won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Our pick: Dione Barbosa ✓ Hit
Model lean: Dione Barbosa 85%
Model win probability: 15% / 85%
Market odds: 480 / -670
Predicted method: —
Result: Dione Barbosa won by Submission
The model favored Dione Barbosa at 85%. Dione Barbosa won by Submission — the model had it right.
Rest of the card 5 fights the strategies passed on Main Card
Model lean: Dricus Du Plessis 67%
Model win probability: 67% / 33%
Market odds: -205 / 163
Predicted method: —
Result: Dricus Du Plessis won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Dricus Du Plessis at 67%. Dricus Du Plessis won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Prelims
Model lean: Austin Bashi 51%
Model win probability: 51% / 49%
Market odds: -130 / 106
Predicted method: —
Result: Jose Delgado won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Austin Bashi at 51%. Jose Delgado won by Decision - Unanimous — the model missed this one.
Model lean: Seokhyeon Ko 66%
Model win probability: 34% / 66%
Market odds: 150 / -186
Predicted method: —
Result: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Seokhyeon Ko at 66%. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani won by Decision - Unanimous — the model missed this one.
Model lean: not yet scored
Model win probability: — / —
Market odds: — / —
Predicted method: —
Result: Ezra Elliott won by Decision - Unanimous
The model never scored this matchup. Ezra Elliott won by Decision - Unanimous.
Model lean: RJ Harris 52%
Model win probability: 52% / 48%
Market odds: -103 / -121
Predicted method: —
Result: RJ Harris won by KO/TKO
The model favored RJ Harris at 52%. RJ Harris won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Only the picks above were backed. Every other fight on this card is listed for the record with the model’s read on it, but the strategies declined it — a model lean is not a recommendation, and nothing below the picks section was bet.
Our round total picks 1/2 correct · +15.0% return on 2 bets
Model P(over 2.5): 56%
Market P(over 2.5): 41%
Edge: +15.5 pts
Closing price: +130
(over, median of 1 book)
Rules: redge10
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Our pick: Over 2.5 ✗ Miss
Model P(over 2.5): 61%
Market P(over 2.5): 43%
Edge: +17.7 pts
Closing price: +122
(over, median of 3 books)
Rules: redge10, ragree5
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 4:04)
Other lines priced 12 lines the rules passed on
Model P(over 2.5): 54%
Market P(over 2.5): 58%
Edge: -3.4 pts
Closing price: −152
(over, median of 4 books)
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Model P(over 1.5): 62%
Market P(over 1.5): 53%
Edge: +9.2 pts
Closing price: −127
(over, median of 4 books)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 2:15)
Model P(over 2.5): 78%
Market P(over 2.5): 74%
Edge: +3.6 pts
Closing price: −351
(over, median of 4 books)
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Model P(over 1.5): 63%
Market P(over 1.5): 53%
Edge: +10.0 pts
Closing price: −125
(over, median of 4 books)
Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 3:29)
Model P(over 1.5): 67%
Market P(over 1.5): 64%
Edge: +2.6 pts
Closing price: −204
(over, median of 3 books)
Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Model P(over 2.5): 57%
Market P(over 2.5): 51%
Edge: +5.8 pts
Closing price: −120
(over, median of 1 book)
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Model P(over 1.5): 60%
Market P(over 1.5): 49%
Edge: +11.5 pts
Closing price: −105
(over, median of 4 books)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R2 1:40)
Model P(over 1.5): 68%
Market P(over 1.5): 58%
Edge: +9.3 pts
Closing price: −161
(over, median of 3 books)
Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Model P(over 1.5): 69%
Market P(over 1.5): 61%
Edge: +8.4 pts
Closing price: −169
(over, median of 3 books)
Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Model P(over 1.5): 58%
Market P(over 1.5): 61%
Edge: -2.7 pts
Closing price: −169
(over, median of 3 books)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 1:40)
Model P(over 2.5): 44%
Market P(over 2.5): 42%
Edge: +2.1 pts
Closing price: +125
(over, median of 1 book)
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 1:40)
Model P(over 1.5): 68%
Market P(over 1.5): 57%
Edge: +11.2 pts
Closing price: −154
(over, median of 1 book)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 4:04)
A round total pick is a side AND a line: the same fight can be picked at 2.5 and passed at 1.5, and the two settle separately. Only the picks above were backed.