← Back to past events2026-07-25T13:00Z
Moneyline8 Round totals4
Our picks 8/8 correct · +2.83u on 8 bets
Our pick: Magomed Ankalaev ✓ Hit
Model lean: Magomed Ankalaev 85%
Model win probability: 85% / 15%
Market odds: -556 / 397
Predicted method: KO/TKO
Result: Magomed Ankalaev won by KO/TKO
The model favored Magomed Ankalaev at 85%. Magomed Ankalaev won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Our pick: Ramazan Temirov ✓ Hit
Model lean: Steve Erceg 58%
Model win probability: 58% / 42%
Market odds: -105 / -115
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Ramazan Temirov won by KO/TKO
The model favored Steve Erceg at 58%. Ramazan Temirov won by KO/TKO — the model missed this one.
Our pick: Magomed Zaynukov ✓ Hit
Model lean: Magomed Zaynukov 69%
Model win probability: 69% / 31%
Market odds: -260 / 210
Predicted method: KO/TKO
Result: Magomed Zaynukov won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Magomed Zaynukov at 69%. Magomed Zaynukov won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Our pick: Valter Walker ✓ Hit
Model lean: Valter Walker 68%
Model win probability: 68% / 32%
Market odds: -189 / 157
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Valter Walker won by Submission
The model favored Valter Walker at 68%. Valter Walker won by Submission — the model had it right.
Our pick: Sam Patterson ✓ Hit
Model lean: Sam Patterson 77%
Model win probability: 23% / 77%
Market odds: 412 / -571
Predicted method: KO/TKO
Result: Sam Patterson won by KO/TKO
The model favored Sam Patterson at 77%. Sam Patterson won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Our pick: Magomed Tuchalov ✓ Hit
Model lean: Magomed Tuchalov 81%
Model win probability: 81% / 19%
Market odds: -909 / 590
Predicted method: KO/TKO
Result: Magomed Tuchalov won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Magomed Tuchalov at 81%. Magomed Tuchalov won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Our pick: Nurullo Aliev ✓ Hit
Model lean: Nurullo Aliev 64%
Model win probability: 64% / 36%
Market odds: -233 / 189
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Nurullo Aliev won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Nurullo Aliev at 64%. Nurullo Aliev won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Our pick: Abdul Hussein ✓ Hit
Model lean: Abdul Hussein 85%
Model win probability: 15% / 85%
Market odds: 455 / -667
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Abdul Hussein won by Submission
The model favored Abdul Hussein at 85%. Abdul Hussein won by Submission — the model had it right.
Rest of the card 4 fights the strategies passed on Main Card
Model lean: Rizvan Kuniev 72%
Model win probability: 72% / 28%
Market odds: -328 / 261
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Rizvan Kuniev won by KO/TKO
The model favored Rizvan Kuniev at 72%. Rizvan Kuniev won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Model lean: Abubakar Vagaev 52%
Model win probability: 52% / 48%
Market odds: -198 / 164
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Abubakar Vagaev won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Abubakar Vagaev at 52%. Abubakar Vagaev won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Prelims
Model lean: not yet scored
Model win probability: — / —
Market odds: — / —
Predicted method: —
Result: Muhammad Saidov won by KO/TKO
The model never scored this matchup. Muhammad Saidov won by KO/TKO.
Model lean: Axel Sola 64%
Model win probability: 36% / 64%
Market odds: 166 / -198
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Axel Sola won by Submission
The model favored Axel Sola at 64%. Axel Sola won by Submission — the model had it right.
Only the picks above were backed. Every other fight on this card is listed for the record with the model’s read on it, but the strategies declined it — a model lean is not a recommendation, and nothing below the picks section was bet.
Our round total picks 1/4 correct · -38.7% return on 4 bets
Our pick: Over 2.5 ✗ Miss
Model P(over 2.5): 68%
Market P(over 2.5): 56%
Edge: +11.8 pts
Closing price: −145
(over, median of 5 books)
Rules: redge10, ragree5
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R3 1:12)
Our pick: Under 2.5 ✗ Miss
Model P(over 2.5): 54%
Market P(over 2.5): 66%
Edge: -12.1 pts
Closing price: +175
(under, median of 5 books)
Rules: redge10, ragree5
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Our pick: Over 2.5 ✗ Miss
Model P(over 2.5): 61%
Market P(over 2.5): 43%
Edge: +17.8 pts
Closing price: +120
(over, median of 1 book)
Rules: redge10
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 1:32)
Model P(over 2.5): 50%
Market P(over 2.5): 39%
Edge: +11.4 pts
Closing price: +145
(over, median of 4 books)
Rules: redge10, ragree5
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 3:07)
Other lines priced 10 lines the rules passed on
Model P(over 2.5): 65%
Market P(over 2.5): 61%
Edge: +3.6 pts
Closing price: −179
(over, median of 5 books)
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 4:21)
Model P(over 1.5): 69%
Market P(over 1.5): 66%
Edge: +2.8 pts
Closing price: −227
(over, median of 4 books)
Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Model P(over 2.5): 49%
Market P(over 2.5): 53%
Edge: -3.9 pts
Closing price: −130
(over, median of 1 book)
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Model P(over 1.5): 74%
Market P(over 1.5): 58%
Edge: +16.5 pts
Closing price: −154
(over, median of 4 books)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 1:32)
Model P(over 1.5): 64%
Market P(over 1.5): 46%
Edge: +18.0 pts
Closing price: +105
(over, median of 5 books)
Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R2 3:06)
Model P(over 2.5): 57%
Market P(over 2.5): 50%
Edge: +6.7 pts
Closing price: −115
(over, median of 5 books)
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 4:44)
Model P(over 0.5): —
Market P(over 0.5): 67%
Edge: —
Closing price: −250
(over, median of 1 book)
Result: not graded
Model P(over 1.5): 40%
Market P(over 1.5): 33%
Edge: +6.9 pts
Closing price: +188
(over, median of 4 books)
Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Model P(over 2.5): 68%
Market P(over 2.5): 65%
Edge: +3.2 pts
Closing price: −208
(over, median of 5 books)
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Model P(over 1.5): 61%
Market P(over 1.5): 53%
Edge: +8.1 pts
Closing price: −130
(over, median of 1 book)
Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 3:07)
A round total pick is a side AND a line: the same fight can be picked at 2.5 and passed at 1.5, and the two settle separately. Only the picks above were backed.