UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry Predictions & Odds

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2026-08-16T03:46:00Z

Our picks 3/8 correct · -3.72u on 8 bets

Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson

Our pick: Gillian Robertson ✗ Miss

Model lean: Mackenzie Dern 62%

Model win probability: 62% / 38%

Market odds: -213 / 180

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Mackenzie Dern won by Decision - Unanimous

The model favored Mackenzie Dern at 62%. Mackenzie Dern won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.

Edson Barboza vs Esteban Ribovics

Our pick: Esteban Ribovics ✓ Hit

Model lean: Esteban Ribovics 89%

Model win probability: 11% / 89%

Market odds: 530 / -769

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Esteban Ribovics won by KO/TKO

The model favored Esteban Ribovics at 89%. Esteban Ribovics won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.

Chidi Njokuani vs Joel Alvarez

Our pick: Joel Alvarez ✗ Miss

Model lean: Joel Alvarez 83%

Model win probability: 17% / 83%

Market odds: 275 / -345

Predicted method: KO/TKO

Result: Chidi Njokuani won by Decision - Unanimous

The model favored Joel Alvarez at 83%. Chidi Njokuani won by Decision - Unanimous — the model missed this one.

Charles Johnson vs Eduardo Chapolin

Our pick: Charles Johnson ✓ Hit

Model lean: Charles Johnson 52%

Model win probability: 52% / 48%

Market odds: -118 / -102

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Charles Johnson won by Submission

The model favored Charles Johnson at 52%. Charles Johnson won by Submission — the model had it right.

Donte Johnson vs Eric McConico

Our pick: Donte Johnson ✓ Hit

Model lean: Donte Johnson 83%

Model win probability: 83% / 17%

Market odds: -333 / 270

Predicted method: KO/TKO

Result: Donte Johnson won by KO/TKO

The model favored Donte Johnson at 83%. Donte Johnson won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.

Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore

Our pick: Vicente Luque ✗ Miss

Model lean: Vicente Luque 56%

Model win probability: 56% / 44%

Market odds: -104 / -116

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Tresean Gore won by Decision - Unanimous

The model favored Vicente Luque at 56%. Tresean Gore won by Decision - Unanimous — the model missed this one.

Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando

Our pick: Rafael Tobias ✗ Miss

Model lean: Lucas Fernando 68%

Model win probability: 32% / 68%

Market odds: 240 / -303

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Lucas Fernando won by KO/TKO

The model favored Lucas Fernando at 68%. Lucas Fernando won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.

Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai

Our pick: Myktybek Orolbai ✗ Miss

Model lean: Myktybek Orolbai 94%

Model win probability: 6% / 94%

Market odds: 750 / -1250

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Jeremiah Wells won by Submission

The model favored Myktybek Orolbai at 94%. Jeremiah Wells won by Submission — the model missed this one.

Rest of the card 4 fights the strategies passed on

Main Card

Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry

Not picked

Model lean: Islam Makhachev 72%

Model win probability: 72% / 28%

Market odds: -345 / 275

Predicted method: Decision

Result: Islam Makhachev won by Decision - Unanimous

The model favored Islam Makhachev at 72%. Islam Makhachev won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.

Jalin Turner vs Kaue Fernandes

Not picked

Model lean: Kaue Fernandes 52%

Model win probability: 48% / 52%

Market odds: -117 / -103

Predicted method: KO/TKO

Result: Jalin Turner won by KO/TKO

The model favored Kaue Fernandes at 52%. Jalin Turner won by KO/TKO — the model missed this one.

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus

Not picked

Model lean: Mansur Abdul-Malik 88%

Model win probability: 88% / 12%

Market odds: -115 / -115

Predicted method: KO/TKO

Result: Dustin Stoltzfus won by Submission

The model favored Mansur Abdul-Malik at 88%. Dustin Stoltzfus won by Submission — the model missed this one.

Early Prelims

Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj

Not picked

Model lean: Ramiz Brahimaj 56%

Model win probability: 44% / 56%

Market odds: 125 / -149

Predicted method: Submission

Result: Neil Magny won by KO/TKO

The model favored Ramiz Brahimaj at 56%. Neil Magny won by KO/TKO — the model missed this one.

Only the picks above were backed. Every other fight on this card is listed for the record with the model’s read on it, but the strategies declined it — a model lean is not a recommendation, and nothing below the picks section was bet.

Our round total picks 0/1 correct · -100.0% return on 1 bet

Donte Johnson vs Eric McConico o/u 2.5

Our pick: Over 2.5 ✗ Miss

Model P(over 2.5): 57%

Market P(over 2.5): 42%

Edge: +15.2 pts

Closing price: +125 (over, median of 1 book)

Rules: redge10

Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 1:38)

Other lines priced 14 lines the rules passed on

Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson o/u 3.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 3.5): —

Market P(over 3.5): 65%

Edge: —

Closing price: −222 (over, median of 3 books)

Result: not graded

Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson o/u 4.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 4.5): —

Market P(over 4.5): 58%

Edge: —

Closing price: −164 (over, median of 1 book)

Result: not graded

Jalin Turner vs Kaue Fernandes o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 51%

Market P(over 1.5): 50%

Edge: +1.0 pts

Closing price: −115 (over, median of 4 books)

Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 0:39)

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 71%

Market P(over 1.5): 55%

Edge: +15.6 pts

Closing price: −141 (over, median of 4 books)

Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R2 4:25)

Edson Barboza vs Esteban Ribovics o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 79%

Market P(over 1.5): 60%

Edge: +19.3 pts

Closing price: −167 (over, median of 4 books)

Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R2 1:32)

Chidi Njokuani vs Joel Alvarez o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 60%

Market P(over 1.5): 54%

Edge: +6.0 pts

Closing price: −132 (over, median of 4 books)

Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 5:00)

Donte Johnson vs Eric McConico o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 74%

Market P(over 1.5): 59%

Edge: +14.9 pts

Closing price: −161 (over, median of 3 books)

Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 1:38)

Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 61%

Market P(over 1.5): 62%

Edge: -0.3 pts

Closing price: −175 (over, median of 3 books)

Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 5:00)

Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore o/u 2.5

not picked

Model P(over 2.5): 49%

Market P(over 2.5): 40%

Edge: +9.3 pts

Closing price: +135 (over, median of 1 book)

Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)

Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 58%

Market P(over 1.5): 57%

Edge: +0.7 pts

Closing price: −154 (over, median of 1 book)

Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 1:10)

Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando o/u 2.5

not picked

Model P(over 2.5): 44%

Market P(over 2.5): 45%

Edge: -0.4 pts

Closing price: +110 (over, median of 4 books)

Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R3 1:10)

Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj o/u 2.5

not picked

Model P(over 2.5): 44%

Market P(over 2.5): 46%

Edge: -2.4 pts

Closing price: +105 (over, median of 4 books)

Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R2 3:20)

Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai o/u 1.5

not a picked line

Model P(over 1.5): 70%

Market P(over 1.5): 59%

Edge: +11.3 pts

Closing price: −163 (over, median of 4 books)

Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 1:24)

Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai o/u 2.5

not picked

Model P(over 2.5): 38%

Market P(over 2.5): 42%

Edge: -3.4 pts

Closing price: +125 (over, median of 1 book)

Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R3 1:24)

A round total pick is a side AND a line: the same fight can be picked at 2.5 and passed at 1.5, and the two settle separately. Only the picks above were backed.