← Back to past events2026-07-11T21:00Z
Moneyline9 Round totals4
Our picks 7/9 correct · +1.34u on 9 bets
Our pick: Benoit Saint Denis ✗ Miss
Model lean: Benoit Saint Denis 53%
Model win probability: 53% / 47%
Market odds: -122 / 100
Predicted method: —
Result: Paddy Pimblett won by Submission
The model favored Benoit Saint Denis at 53%. Paddy Pimblett won by Submission — the model missed this one.
Our pick: King Green ✓ Hit
Model lean: Terrance McKinney 51%
Model win probability: 49% / 51%
Market odds: -120 / -104
Predicted method: —
Result: King Green won by KO/TKO
The model favored Terrance McKinney at 51%. King Green won by KO/TKO — the model missed this one.
Our pick: Nikita Krylov ✗ Miss
Model lean: Robert Whittaker 53%
Model win probability: 47% / 53%
Market odds: 102 / -125
Predicted method: —
Result: Robert Whittaker won by KO/TKO
The model favored Robert Whittaker at 53%. Robert Whittaker won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Our pick: Gable Steveson ✓ Hit
Model lean: Gable Steveson 93%
Model win probability: 93% / 7%
Market odds: -1430 / 850
Predicted method: —
Result: Gable Steveson won by KO/TKO
The model favored Gable Steveson at 93%. Gable Steveson won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Our pick: Luke Riley ✓ Hit
Model lean: Luke Riley 74%
Model win probability: 74% / 26%
Market odds: -265 / 205
Predicted method: —
Result: Luke Riley won by KO/TKO
The model favored Luke Riley at 74%. Luke Riley won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Our pick: Wang Cong ✓ Hit
Model lean: Wang Cong 53%
Model win probability: 47% / 53%
Market odds: 100 / -124
Predicted method: —
Result: Wang Cong won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Wang Cong at 53%. Wang Cong won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Our pick: Damian Pinas ✓ Hit
Model lean: Damian Pinas 73%
Model win probability: 73% / 27%
Market odds: -265 / 205
Predicted method: —
Result: Damian Pinas won by KO/TKO
The model favored Damian Pinas at 73%. Damian Pinas won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Our pick: Farid Basharat ✓ Hit
Model lean: Farid Basharat 87%
Model win probability: 87% / 13%
Market odds: -715 / 500
Predicted method: —
Result: Farid Basharat won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Farid Basharat at 87%. Farid Basharat won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Our pick: Ryan Gandra ✓ Hit
Model lean: Ryan Gandra 57%
Model win probability: 57% / 43%
Market odds: -136 / 110
Predicted method: —
Result: Ryan Gandra won by KO/TKO
The model favored Ryan Gandra at 57%. Ryan Gandra won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Rest of the card 5 fights the strategies passed on Main Card
Model lean: Max Holloway 75%
Model win probability: 25% / 75%
Market odds: 235 / -295
Predicted method: —
Result: Max Holloway won by KO/TKO
The model favored Max Holloway at 75%. Max Holloway won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Model lean: Cory Sandhagen 59%
Model win probability: 59% / 41%
Market odds: -148 / 120
Predicted method: —
Result: Mario Bautista won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Cory Sandhagen at 59%. Mario Bautista won by Decision - Unanimous — the model missed this one.
Model lean: Lone'er Kavanagh 69%
Model win probability: 31% / 69%
Market odds: 195 / -250
Predicted method: —
Result: Brandon Royval won by Submission
The model favored Lone'er Kavanagh at 69%. Brandon Royval won by Submission — the model missed this one.
Prelims
Model lean: Adrian Yanez 79%
Model win probability: 21% / 79%
Market odds: 310 / -420
Predicted method: —
Result: Adrian Yanez won by KO/TKO
The model favored Adrian Yanez at 79%. Adrian Yanez won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Early Prelims
Model lean: Alessandro Costa 71%
Model win probability: 71% / 29%
Market odds: -235 / 185
Predicted method: —
Result: Alessandro Costa won by Submission
The model favored Alessandro Costa at 71%. Alessandro Costa won by Submission — the model had it right.
Only the picks above were backed. Every other fight on this card is listed for the record with the model’s read on it, but the strategies declined it — a model lean is not a recommendation, and nothing below the picks section was bet.
Our round total picks 2/4 correct · -20.7% return on 4 bets
Our pick: Over 2.5 ✗ Miss
Model P(over 2.5): 52%
Market P(over 2.5): 42%
Edge: +10.0 pts
Closing price: +125
(over, median of 3 books)
Rules: ragree5
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 0:52)
Our pick: Over 2.5 ✗ Miss
Model P(over 2.5): 76%
Market P(over 2.5): 65%
Edge: +11.3 pts
Closing price: −208
(over, median of 3 books)
Rules: redge10, ragree5
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 3:03)
Model P(over 2.5): 77%
Market P(over 2.5): 70%
Edge: +6.6 pts
Closing price: −294
(over, median of 3 books)
Rules: ragree5
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Model P(over 2.5): 65%
Market P(over 2.5): 51%
Edge: +13.9 pts
Closing price: −120
(over, median of 3 books)
Rules: redge10, ragree5
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Other lines priced 13 lines the rules passed on
Model P(over 2.5): 72%
Market P(over 2.5): 69%
Edge: +3.4 pts
Closing price: −270
(over, median of 3 books)
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 5:00)
Model P(over 2.5): 65%
Market P(over 2.5): 61%
Edge: +4.0 pts
Closing price: −175
(over, median of 3 books)
Result: OVER 2.5 (ended R3 3:40)
Model P(over 0.5): —
Market P(over 0.5): 66%
Edge: —
Closing price: −233
(over, median of 1 book)
Result: not graded
Model P(over 1.5): 51%
Market P(over 1.5): 25%
Edge: +25.9 pts
Closing price: +280
(over, median of 2 books)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 4:59)
Model P(over 1.5): 64%
Market P(over 1.5): 62%
Edge: +1.8 pts
Closing price: −183
(over, median of 2 books)
Result: OVER 1.5 (ended R3 1:01)
Model P(over 2.5): 46%
Market P(over 2.5): 49%
Edge: -2.9 pts
Closing price: −110
(over, median of 1 book)
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R3 1:01)
Model P(over 0.5): —
Market P(over 0.5): 56%
Edge: —
Closing price: −149
(over, median of 1 book)
Result: not graded
Model P(over 1.5): 39%
Market P(over 1.5): 21%
Edge: +17.6 pts
Closing price: +345
(over, median of 2 books)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 2:31)
Model P(over 1.5): 58%
Market P(over 1.5): 64%
Edge: -6.5 pts
Closing price: −204
(over, median of 2 books)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 2:47)
Model P(over 2.5): 44%
Market P(over 2.5): 48%
Edge: -3.9 pts
Closing price: −105
(over, median of 1 book)
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R1 2:47)
Model P(over 1.5): 62%
Market P(over 1.5): 50%
Edge: +12.5 pts
Closing price: −115
(over, median of 3 books)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R1 4:44)
Model P(over 1.5): 60%
Market P(over 1.5): 65%
Edge: -5.1 pts
Closing price: −217
(over, median of 2 books)
Result: UNDER 1.5 (ended R2 2:19)
Model P(over 2.5): 48%
Market P(over 2.5): 48%
Edge: +0.1 pts
Closing price: −105
(over, median of 1 book)
Result: UNDER 2.5 (ended R2 2:19)
A round total pick is a side AND a line: the same fight can be picked at 2.5 and passed at 1.5, and the two settle separately. Only the picks above were backed.