← Back to past events2026-09-13T00:11:00Z
Moneyline Round totals3
Full card 13 fights Main Card
Model lean: Jean Silva 69%
Model win probability: 69% / 31%
Market odds: -435 / 330
Predicted method: KO/TKO
Result: Jean Silva won by Submission
The model favored Jean Silva at 69%. Jean Silva won by Submission — the model had it right.
Model lean: Brandon Moreno 53%
Model win probability: 53% / 47%
Market odds: -105 / -115
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Brandon Moreno won by Decision - Split
The model favored Brandon Moreno at 53%. Brandon Moreno won by Decision - Split — the model had it right.
Model lean: Tommy McMillen 62%
Model win probability: 62% / 38%
Market odds: -172 / 144
Predicted method: KO/TKO
Result: Tommy McMillen won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Tommy McMillen at 62%. Tommy McMillen won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Model lean: Manon Fiorot 75%
Model win probability: 75% / 25%
Market odds: -286 / 230
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Alexa Grasso won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Manon Fiorot at 75%. Alexa Grasso won by Decision - Unanimous — the model missed this one.
Model lean: Waldo Cortes Acosta 65%
Model win probability: 65% / 35%
Market odds: -196 / 164
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Curtis Blaydes won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Waldo Cortes Acosta at 65%. Curtis Blaydes won by Decision - Unanimous — the model missed this one.
Model lean: David Martinez 84%
Model win probability: 84% / 16%
Market odds: -426 / 325
Predicted method: Decision
Result: David Martinez won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored David Martinez at 84%. David Martinez won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Prelims
Model lean: Tim Elliott 76%
Model win probability: 76% / 24%
Market odds: -444 / 282
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Tim Elliott won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Tim Elliott at 76%. Tim Elliott won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Model lean: Ignacio Bahamondes 86%
Model win probability: 86% / 14%
Market odds: -588 / 425
Predicted method: KO/TKO
Result: Ignacio Bahamondes won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Ignacio Bahamondes at 86%. Ignacio Bahamondes won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Model lean: Yousri Belgaroui 91%
Model win probability: 91% / 9%
Market odds: -909 / 600
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Yousri Belgaroui won by KO/TKO
The model favored Yousri Belgaroui at 91%. Yousri Belgaroui won by KO/TKO — the model had it right.
Model lean: Tommy Gantt 81%
Model win probability: 19% / 81%
Market odds: 308 / -392
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Tommy Gantt won by Submission
The model favored Tommy Gantt at 81%. Tommy Gantt won by Submission — the model had it right.
Model lean: Rongzhu 52%
Model win probability: 48% / 52%
Market odds: 130 / -154
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Rongzhu won by Decision - Unanimous
The model favored Rongzhu at 52%. Rongzhu won by Decision - Unanimous — the model had it right.
Model lean: not yet scored
Model win probability: — / —
Market odds: — / —
Predicted method: —
Result: Sean King III won by KO/TKO
The model never scored this matchup. Sean King III won by KO/TKO.
Model lean: not yet scored
Model win probability: — / —
Market odds: — / —
Predicted method: Decision
Result: Regina Tarin won by Decision - Unanimous
The model never scored this matchup. Regina Tarin won by Decision - Unanimous.
Our round total picks 3 awaiting results
Model P(over 2.5): 70%
Market P(over 2.5): 47%
Edge: +23.0 pts
Closing price: +100
(over, median of 1 book)
Rules: redge10
Model P(over 2.5): 59%
Market P(over 2.5): 41%
Edge: +17.8 pts
Closing price: +130
(over, median of 1 book)
Rules: redge10
Model P(over 2.5): 61%
Market P(over 2.5): 66%
Edge: -5.2 pts
Closing price: +182
(under, median of 5 books)
Rules: ragree5
Other lines priced 10 lines the rules passed on
Model P(over 2.5): 68%
Market P(over 2.5): 73%
Edge: -5.0 pts
Closing price: −345
(over, median of 5 books)
Model P(over 1.5): 64%
Market P(over 1.5): 58%
Edge: +5.9 pts
Closing price: −154
(over, median of 4 books)
Model P(over 2.5): 46%
Market P(over 2.5): 42%
Edge: +4.2 pts
Closing price: +125
(over, median of 1 book)
Model P(over 2.5): 74%
Market P(over 2.5): 76%
Edge: -1.6 pts
Closing price: −392
(over, median of 4 books)
Model P(over 2.5): 62%
Market P(over 2.5): 54%
Edge: +8.2 pts
Closing price: −135
(over, median of 5 books)
Model P(over 2.5): 69%
Market P(over 2.5): 65%
Edge: +4.2 pts
Closing price: −208
(over, median of 3 books)
Model P(over 2.5): 59%
Market P(over 2.5): 55%
Edge: +3.7 pts
Closing price: −141
(over, median of 5 books)
Model P(over 1.5): 68%
Market P(over 1.5): 53%
Edge: +14.7 pts
Closing price: −130
(over, median of 5 books)
Model P(over 1.5): 79%
Market P(over 1.5): 67%
Edge: +12.0 pts
Closing price: −235
(over, median of 4 books)
Model P(over 1.5): 71%
Market P(over 1.5): 62%
Edge: +8.7 pts
Closing price: −189
(over, median of 4 books)
A round total pick is a side AND a line: the same fight can be picked at 2.5 and passed at 1.5, and the two settle separately. Only the picks above were backed.