Ciryl Gane vs Rizvan Kuniev
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today.
The model picks Ciryl Gane, 68% (about −215 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Heavyweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Ciryl Gane and Rizvan Kuniev fought today, our model would make Gane a clear favorite at 68%, about −215 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Kuniev the underdog.
Its read has barely moved over the last year: Gane was at 68% and is at 68% now.
The most likely ending is a decision (47%), then a knockout (45%), then a submission (8%).
Ciryl Gane is 11-2 in the UFC (14-2 overall); Rizvan Kuniev is 2-1 in the UFC (14-3 overall).
They have never fought each other.
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Ciryl Gane's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.