Carlos Ulberg vs Khalil Rountree Jr.
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today.
The model picks Carlos Ulberg, 77% (about −334 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Light Heavyweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Carlos Ulberg and Khalil Rountree Jr. fought today, our model would make Ulberg a heavy favorite at 77%, about −334 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Rountree the underdog.
Its read has barely moved over the last year: Ulberg was at 75% and is at 77% now.
The most likely ending is a knockout (72%), then a decision (19%), then a submission (8%).
Carlos Ulberg is 10-1 in the UFC (14-1 overall); Khalil Rountree Jr. is 10-7 in the UFC (10-7 overall).
They have never fought each other.
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Carlos Ulberg's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.